Product Description
Remarkable selection of puzzlers, graded in difficulty, that illustrate both elementary and advanced aspects of probability. Selected for originality, general interest or because they demonstrate valuable techniques, the problems are ideal as a supplement to courses in probability or statistics, or as stimulating recreation for the mathematically minded. Detailed solutions. Illustrated.
... Read more

Customer Reviews (11)

Fun and challenging
I have enjoyed going through the problems in this book. Sometimes I would get out a pencil and paper to work through a problem, and other times I would just skip right to the answer. The solutions are well explained and easy to understand.

A great treasure
I don't know what to say. The problems here are really interesting. The problems range from very easy ones to very difficult ones. There are problems on variety of prob topics including continuous prob. Some of the problems are very hard to the point you want to pull your hair out. However, it is definitly the best problems I have seen.

happy with the purchase.
Interesting book, challenging for anyone who likes to work on math.

For math lovers
I got this book because I wanted to strengthen my skills with basic probability as it relates to gaming, gambling and trading.

In some areas the problems here were helpful to me, and the solutions are well explained.

In a few areas the problems were way over my head and in areas I either don't understand or am not interested in.

That said, I think anyone with an interest in the subject won't be disappointed with this thin book, except maybe wishing there was a greater variety of problem types, which wasone complaint I had, the second was that the solutions were a bit too complicated, which may mean I'm just not smart enough, however, it would have been a bit stronger of a book if it had explained some of the items at a lower level (for us numbskulls).

Worth its' weight in a very precious metal
This collection of fifty-six classic problems in probability is a first-rate work. All of the solutions are well written and easily followed. The reasoning is general enough to allow you to go on and solve related problems. Examples are birthday matching, trials until success, cooperation, gambler's ruin, and Buffon's needle.
If you have a soft spot for problems in probability, this book is an inexpensive must.

Published in Journal of Recreational Mathematics, reprinted with permission. ... Read more

Product Description
A common denominator among most new traders is that, within six months of launching their new pursuit, they are out of money and out of trading. High-Probability Trading softens the impact of this "trader's tuition," detailing a comprehensive program for weathering those perilous first months and becoming a profitable trader.

This no-nonsense book takes a uniquely blunt look at the realities of trading. Filled with real-life examples and intended for use by both short- and long-term traders, it explores each aspect of successful trading. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (108)

excellent book!
Excellent book on trading. It is written for new traders. As a beginner day trader, I found a lot of invaluable information in this book. It is easy to read with nice summaries at the end and questions to ask yourself. I would highly recommend this book to everyone who is beginning to trade.

Not Suitable for KINDLE!!
Although the book's content is good and interesting, it is totally unsuitable for reading and studying on the Kindle.
As it is all about charts, analyses, details, it is very (!) annoying not to be able to see or read the charts on the kindle approprietly. Also the browsing/moving forth and back between the charts and text is irritating.
This is not the author's mistake but Amazon's.
Amazon should warn its customers for this!
I just bought the paper back version of the book, but now have double costs of course...

Great Book on Trading
This is a most practical and complete book I had ever read after Mark Douglas Trading in the zone. I read this book several times once I borowed from library and later on purchased this book. I still readthis book whenever I get a chance. This book talks about trading psychology, trading style, strategy, pitfalls and whole lot. I highly recommend this to everyone who is in the trading profession.

a 50 pg booklet in 350 pages
First, let me say that the content of this book is just fine.I think the key themes presented are very true, and the author seems to have a basis of personal experience to work from.My complaints are twofold:
(1) the book rehashes the same basic points over, and over, and over, and over.I don't consider myself a particularly quick study, but I don't need to be told 20 times that it's important to have a disciplined money management approach.I think the author could've actually proposed a specific framework (or five) for money management rather than just endlessly saying that you need to cap your losses
(2) it's written in a pretty uninspired way.I like that the author is a trader who writes rather than a writer who trades, but multiple misspellings, poor grammar and sloppy sentence structure.This is the editor's problem, not the author's since I don't expect content experts to be Steinbecks

Read the book if you like, but be prepared to skim after about the first 50 pages

Best book i ever read about trading..
As a beginner in trading, i find this book really helpful for me in understanding the high risk in trading. I recommend to anyone about this book!!!The author really give a goodidea in not making any bad trades. How to use different time frames really help me a lot. ... Read more

Product Description

Confusing Textbooks? Missed Lectures? Not Enough Time?

Fortunately for you, there's Schaum's Outlines. More than 40 million students have trusted Schaum's to help them succeed in the classroom and on exams. Schaum's is the key to faster learning and higher grades in every subject. Each Outline presents all the essential course information in an easy-to-follow, topic-by-topic format. You also get hundreds of examples, solved problems, and practice exercises to test your skills.

This Schaum's Outline gives you

• Practice problems with full explanations that reinforce knowledge
• Coverage of the most up-to-date developments in your course field
• In-depth review of practices and applications

Fully compatible with your classroom text, Schaum's highlights all the important facts you need to know. Use Schaum's to shorten your study time-and get your best test scores!

Schaum's Outlines-Problem Solved.

Customer Reviews (7)

very condensed
This book and the way it's advertised make it seem like an idiot's guide to Stats. However, it's not. It's actually pretty dense for that. It is a great supplement to a Stats class. It cuts through a lot of the nonsense and verbiage of many stats texts. I'd suggest using this to supplement the class (after lectures etc). It's also great to refresh yourself on basic stats and probability concepts once you've taken a course. I just wish it had more diagrams and pictures of the various distributions.

Good book!
I really love this book. The packaging is super nice.. There was no single damage to my book.. I just LOVE it

Riddled with Typos
I thought the material covered in this book was excellent and the examples are very good as well, but there was just one problem....riddled with typos.I noticed the first one on a Supplementary Problem in the the first chapter: the given answer was way off. Then in the 2nd chapter I noticed on another practice problem that there was an addition sign instead of an equal sign.Issues like this popped up for me through the FIRST 5 CHAPTERS!!!! If you are just learning some of this material it can be extremely frustrating because one symbol or number that is off may cause you to rack your brain for hours trying to figure out if it's the book or you that is wrong. Because most students blindly trust books this can cause a real hiccup in your studies.When I finally got fed up with the book I had to call McGraw Hill to see if they could exchange it for one without all the errors. Because I didn't purchase it directly from them (as most individual students purchase books from a store) they said there is nothing they could do for me except inform the editors.When I asked them if they accept any product liability on their part their response was: "If you buy food from one grocery store you can't return it at another". I urge you that if you are learning this material for the first time STAY AWAY FROM THIS BOOK.I gave this book 2 Stars because the content and explanations were pretty good, but the typos eventually became too much to overlook.

Probability and Statistics
Probability and Statistics is my life. I needed this book to just refresh my basic stats and this is it.

great deal
awesome price, came within a reasonable amount of time, came in good condition, no complaints whatsoever ... Read more

Product Description
Packed with practical tips and techniques for solving probability problems


Increase your chances of acing that probability exam -- or winning at the casino!

Whether you're hitting the books for a probability or statistics course or hitting the tables at a casino, working out probabilities can be problematic. This book helps you even the odds. Using easy-to-understand explanations and examples, it demystifies probability -- and even offers savvy tips to boost your chances of gambling success!

Discover how to
* Conquer combinations and permutations
* Understand probability models from binomial to exponential
* Make good decisions using probability
* Play the odds in poker, roulette, and other games ... Read more

Customer Reviews (12)

4 for coverage, 2 for accuracy
Overall, this is a good book that serves well as a very thorough introduction to probabilities and statistical distributions.The author covers a very large domain that is probably equivalent to at least one semester course at the college level.I was surprised at the number and complexity of statistical distributions covered and at the depth of the combination and permutation topics applications.

This book should fulfill the knowledge needs of most people needing such an introduction to probabilities.The author provides all the formulas and tools needed to deal with not only basic but also fairly advanced stuff (with statistical distributions the learning curve accelerates into the advanced domain readily).

As mentioned in the title of this review, the author is not as accurate as she should have been.Some errors are permissible.Other errors are less so.Among the permissible errors are the author's treatment of the famous birthday problems.I won't bore you with the technicalities others have already well specified.In any case, the author comes up with an elegant estimate of a solution to the birthday problem.But, it is not 100% accurate.The only error the author did here is to forget to mention this was an estimation and not an accurate solution.There are many well accepted estimations to the birthday problem and the author's is as reasonably accurate as any others (I have partly checked that).

Among the errors that are less permissible, right at the beginning of the book the author completely messes up what odds are.She states that odds is the inverse of a probability.It is not.The odds is either the probability of winning divided by the probability of losing (called Odds on) or the reverse (Odds against).Later in the book, she also bungles the Z distribution probability density function.Those are material errors that discredit the author.

So, there you have it.This is a good book overall, but watch out for some errors.If you study statistical distributions in depth I would double check every pmf or pdf formulas with another source such as Wikipedia.

If you want to build your mathematical foundation I also strongly recommend Forgotten Algebra, Forgotten Calculus, and Forgotten Statistics: A Refresher Course with Applications to Economics and Business.Those books were somewhat more accessible than this one (shorter on theory, more exercises, and superior in quality).

evolution for dummies
I hate it. Both probability for Dummies, and Evolution for dummies, are much too dificult to understand, without a background in mathematics-algebra, calculus, on evolution, a background in genetics, dna, rna is required to understand-definitely neither are a basic course or reference. I quit reading both, and would like to sell them back-unused, like new condition.

Unacceptable Errors
I am revising my review of this book due to the seriousness of one particular error.

On page 126, the author, Deborah Rumsey, addresses "The Famous Birthday Problem." Basically, the problem asks, "Given n people in a group, what is the probability of at least two of them sharing a birthday?"

This problem and its correct solution are well known and can be found in numerous authoritative texts such as William Feller's "Probability Theory and Its Applications" and on the Internet as well.

At first blush, Rumsey's different from the traditional approach to this problem seemed clever to me. However, upon closer examination, her method turns out to be flawed.

For example, if there were four people in the group, the correct calculation for the probability that at least two of the four people share a birthday is:

1 - (365/365)(364/365)(363/365)(362/365)

According to Rumsey's method, however, the corresponding probability would be:

1 - (364/365)(364/365)(364/365)(364/365)(364/365)(364/365)

Rumsey's "solution" is not mathematically equivalent to the first (correct) solution, although, fortuitously, the calculated results are nearly the same (0.0163559 versus 0.0163262). This difference reveals a subtle error in the logic of Rumsey's approach to the problem.

I'm rating this book with a single star because I feel that an error of logic in a book that purports to teach probability is not acceptable. I enjoyed reading Probability For Dummies, but I am disappointed that an otherwise well written, entertaining, and useful book has been stained by a fundamental error in reasoning.

Other errors in the book are:

On page 9, both the definition and example of the term "odds" are incorrect. "Odds" is not the ratio of the denominator to the numerator of a probability, but rather the ratio of the probability of success for a given event to the probability of failure of that event.If the probability of a horse winning a race is 50%, the odds of the horse winning is 1 to 1, not 2 to 1 as the book states.

On page 169, the formula that defines the normal distribution is incorrect.The denominator of the exponent should be "twice sigma", not "sigma".

On page 170, the formula that defines the Z distribution is incorrect.The exponent "minus Z squared" should be "minus Z squared divided by two".

Outstanding especially for students with rusty probability skills!
I am taking a grad school class dealing with lots of Probability Distribution Models and concepts - and it has been a few years - okay a few DECADES since I first was exposed to these concepts.My prof was busy racing through lecture slides at the "Kleinrock" level of probability detail, and my eyes were glazed over and I was lost. Probability for Dummies has quickly allowed me to catch up with my prof, and now feel confident again about the concepts my prof assumed I knew with perfect recall from long, long ago.If you need consise and well written explanations of probability concepts such as pdfs, cdfs, probability distribution models, the Central Limit Theorem, etc. this book is a great help.This book is extremely 'student friendly' in that the author offers many coaching tips and comments for students from her wealth of experience as a teacher of Probability classes. Excellent book for for those looking for a quick refresher of Probability concepts!

Summarizes Probability.
This book helps summarize probability for people who think about this topic with a foggy expression on their face. A decent book overall. ... Read more

Product Description

KEY BENEFIT: A First Course in Probability, Eighth Edition, features clear and intuitive explanations of the mathematics of probability theory, outstanding problem sets, and a variety of diverse examples and applications. This book is ideal for an upper-level undergraduate or graduate level introduction to probability for math, science, engineering and business students. It assumes a background in elementary calculus.

Customer Reviews (79)

Horrible book
This book is terrible!I don't understand how it's "A First Course".Good luck answering the questions with only the info provided in the chapters.You'll have to spend countless hours consulting your TA or the internet to figure out the answers.Garbage.

Examples and Errors
There are many good and bad things about this book, so:

Pros:
1) Lots of examples.Probability can be complicated (especially combinatorics), and math is learned via examples (at least for me).
2) Lots of exercises. There are a HUGE number of exercises, and answers for them are usually in the back of the book (just the numerical values).


Cons:
1) Example format. A lot of important concepts are defined within the examples, which is a pet peeve of mine, since it's hard to go back and find important information quickly.
2) ERRORS! Some of the answers in the back of the book are numbered wrong. This is the eighth addition; this should be fixed by now.
3) The book is fairly flimsy.

I figured this book deserves three stars. There are many better books out there, for people who have choice of which book to buy. For example, one of my favorites is Probability and Random Processes by Geoffrey Grimmett and David Stirzaker.

very fast shipping and good condition!!
So fast shipping!!! He said the book is like new, but it is really new.

Exercises are real brain twisters
If you intend to self study from this book, its going to be very challenging. I'd highly recommend that you use "Probability for Risk Management" by Matt Hassett to get an understanding of the basic theory and then do the examples and the exercises from this book if you really want to nail probability theory.

Poor textbook
I'll be brief.This book is quite possibly the worst textbook I have ever used, in ANY subject.Ross's method of teaching is a service to those students in my undergraduate math courses who just want to look at examples all day so they can do the homework, rather than actually learning what the concept means.I'm not saying there shouldn't be examples, (a la many real analysis books) but there need not be as many as there are provided here.Important theorems and definitions are glazed over for the sake of more examples, and the explanations that are there are cut short...to make room for MORE EXAMPLES!!!The difficulty is not the issue, it's simply the method of teaching.Ask yourself:If I wanted help from a professor, and he kept throwing examples at me rather than explaining the subject, how long would I stay awake in the class (or enrolled in the class, for that matter)?I would give this book zero stars if possible, and it is the first math text I have purchased that I considered selling back.Terrible. ... Read more

Product Description

Ross's classic bestseller, Introduction to Probability Models, has been used extensively by professionals and as the primary text for a first undergraduate course in applied probability. It provides an introduction to elementary probability theory and stochastic processes, and shows how probability theory can be applied to the study of phenomena in fields such as engineering, computer science, management science, the physical and social sciences, and operations research. With the addition of several new sections relating to actuaries, this text is highly recommended by the Society of Actuaries.

Customer Reviews (37)

A very bad text book in probability
Although the book goes fast on the probability prerequisites to reach modeling principles, it is a very very bad book for learning mobility principles (markov chains and processes) because the author only presented only the key theorems and then went through very hard examples. While you did not understand the basics, the book faces you a very hard example with usually 2 or 3 pages solution. Besides, there are some typos in the book.
In general, I do not suggest this book to any student who wants to learn modeling or probability but it is good as a collection of hard and interesting examples!!

GOOD BOOK
The book is of really good quality with reasonable price! I really like it !

One of the best math books I have seen
I borrowed the book from a friend. Having read one chapter, it got me so interested that I ordered one for myself.
What I like about this book is that it follows a problem based approach. It's an intermediate/advanced book and one needs some (e.g. undergraduate level) background in probability to understand the material but in general its very well written.

Very usefull and easy
I am not a statistician and yet I loved the book. The exercises are hard, but very helpfull (maybe it should have more answers). There are a lot of examples in each chapter, making easier to understand the theory.

The author look to explain the intuition behind some theorems and proofs, which is excellent. I have almost no hard background in statistic and math (just knew how to derive and integrate and some notions of calculus of probaility) and I was capable of understand almost everything I studied (from chapter 4 to 8).

New To This Edition Are Five New Sections
".....NEW TO THIS EDITION ARE FIVE NEW SECTIONS, and numerous new examples and exercises, many of which focus on strategies applicable in risk industries such as insurance or acturial work....."

"Other Academic Press books by Sheldon Ross:
Simulation 3/e, ISBN 0 12 598053 1.
Probability Models for Computer Science, ISBN 0 12 598051 5.
Introduction to Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists 2/e, ISBN 0 12 598472 3."
[from the book of the back cover] ... Read more

Product Description

Study faster, learn better, and get top grades

Modified to conform to the current curriculum, Schaum's Outline of Probability, Random Variables, and Random Processes complements these courses in scope and sequence to help you understand its basic concepts. The book offers extra practice on topics such as bivariate random variables, joint distribution functions, moment generating functions, Poisson processes, Wiener processes, power spectral densities, and white noise. You'll also get coverage of linear systems to random outputs, Fourier series and Karhunen-Loéve expansions, Fourier transform of random processes, parameter estimation, Bayes' estimation, and mean square estimation. Appropriate for the following courses: Probability, Random Processes, Stochastic Processes, Probability and Random Variables, Introduction to Probability and Statistics

Features:

• 405 solved problems
• Additional material on distributions, the Markov Process, and Martingales
• Support for all the major textbooks for probability, variables, and processes courses

Topics include: Probability, Random Variables, Multiple Random Variables, Functions of Random Variables, Expectation, Limit Theorems, Random Processes, Analysis and Processing of Random Processes, Estimation Theory, Decision Theory, Queueing Theory

Customer Reviews (16)

Mediocre At Best
Not something I would buy to use to review for a test. Book lacks details of fundamentals of statics. Majority of book was simply a collection of problems along with their answers. Not enough worked out examples.

Review
Just had this book yesterday and I can't say how wonderful it is. The current text book I am using sucks hell. So, I decided to search for an alternative book. After I read the comments and I decide to give it a try. When I start reading it, it was so helpful!!!Highly recommand!!

Great for what it is...
...which is good for mathematicians and students. To be honest, I purchased this book to gain some insight and practical examples on probability for trading purposes. While this book offers a lot of information about the subject, it wasn't exactly what I was looking for. It'll probably be more useful to someone who'd develop their own automated system, but not very much for scalpers or swing traders.

Tons of helpful solved examples
I wish I had this when I was taking my probability courses.It presents concepts in a clear and understandable way, and the solved problems provide excellent guidance.After working through the solved examples, I finally had a better understanding of random variables, pdfs, cdfs, random processes, etc.I would strongly encourage solving as many problems as you can in this book as you are going through other texts or taking a class on this.Reading through a textbook may lull you into thinking you already understand it, and waiting a long time for feedback on homework may make you more lost in class.Doing exercises will help identify your weaknesses and provide instant feedback on areas you may need to study more.With this stronger foundation, you can appreciate and understand better what the other texts are discussing.

THANK YOU SCHAUM"S!
This book is a GOD SEND. I have been utterly confused in my upper division probability course, but this book has so many great worked out problems that it worked out all my problems understanding the subject material. I thought I would fail the class, but I will probably get a B! ... Read more

Product Description

Customer Reviews (6)

great book
This is a great book, thin enough and hence not too intimidating. It covers some basic theory, and very readable.

Okay by me
I have Ash's IEEE books on Calculus, and Probability. They are outstanding companions to what ever text you use for those subjects. They are good references for refreshing knowledge. This book is not them. It is written more for an accademic. If you want theory and proof from Dr. Ash, this is it. I would use this one and the IEEE book on Probability together.

Pretty good book for basic probability theory
This is a small book.
Actually, if you want to grab a book that can cover the whole material about probability, this won't be a good choice.
However, just as the first step to study probability, I think this book is a good choice.

There is a solution for odd number exercises in this book.
(If you search the webpage of author, you check other solutions for even number!)

Excellent introduction to probability
This book is well-written and a good introduction to probability theory. There isn't a class taught at my local college on this subject, yet it's used in so many other math classes!

Very readable, a jewel
I studied the basics of probability from this book and I reccomend it to anyone interested in the subject.At that time (epoch...) I simply found the book by Feller too wordy and large and took this one as an alternative and I must say it did the job finely.It is not 'for dummies,' but it is very readable and complete with all steps necessary to understand the ideas and techniques presented.I disagree a little bit with an other reviewer that stated that this book is sort of an intermediate level text - it only requires knowledge of single-variable calculus.Incredibly cheap edition by Dover. ... Read more

Product Description

WHAT ARE THE ODDS YOU'LL WIN THE LOTTERY?

How long will your kids wait in line at Disney World?

Who decides that “standardized tests” are fair?

Why do highway engineers build slow-moving ramps?

What does it mean, statistically, to be an “Average Joe”?

NUMBERS RULE YOUR WORLD
In the popular tradition of eye-opening bestsellers like Freakonomics, The Tipping Point, and Super Crunchers, this fascinating book from renowned statistician and blogger Kaiser Fung takes you inside the hidden world of facts and figures that affect you every day, in every way.

These are the statistics that rule your life, your job, your commute, your vacation, your food, your health, your money, and your success. This is how engineers calculate your quality of living, how corporations determine your needs, and how politicians estimate your opinions. These are the numbers you never think about-even though they play a crucial role in every single aspect of your life.

What you learn may surprise you, amuse you, or even enrage you. But there's one thing you won't be able to deny: Numbers Rule Your World…

"An easy read with a big benefit."
--Fareed Zakaria, CNN

"For those who have anxiety about how organization data-mining is impacting their world,Kaiser Fung pulls back the curtain to reveal the good and the bad of predictive analytics."
--Ian Ayres,Yale professor and author of Super Crunchers:Why Thinking By Numbers is the New Way to Be Smart

"A book that engages us with stories that a journalist would write, the compelling stories behind the stories as illuminated by the numbers, and the dynamics that the numbers reveal."
--John Sall, Executive Vice President, SAS Institute

"Little did I suspect, when I picked up Kaiser Fung's book, that I would become so entranced by it - an illuminating and accessible exploration of the power of statistical analysis for those of us who have no prior training in a field that he explores so ably."
--Peter Clarke, author of Keynes: The Rise, Fall, and Return of the 20th Century's Most Influential Economist
... Read more

Customer Reviews (18)

More about contemporary events than statistics
This book is fairly well written and it presents stories about current events in which statistics play a major role. I purchased it, however, hoping to learn some statistics. I have read other math books about different concepts ranging from calculus to math history that were both entertaining and informative from a mathematical point of view (Derbyshire, Dunham, etc.). I have found this book to very lacking in this regard.

Statistics is my weakest area in math since I have never taken a course on the subject. What a student will learn in a first year statistics course, however, dwarfs what you will learn from this book. For instance, in the chapter regarding correlation versus causation, the author uses stories to highlight their differences, and explores how they are often mixed up. Having already known about this distinction, however, I picked up nothing mathematically from the chapter. There was no real insight into how these statistics are created.

If you know absolutely nothing about statistics, you can pick up a little from this book. For instance, in the same chapter mentioned above, the author examines how statisticians determined spinach to be the cause of the e coli outbreak from a couple of years back. It's very simple. 20% of people reported eating spinach on a regular basis, but 80% of people reported eating spinach who had been diagnosed with e coli. The chances of that happening are very slim, statistically speaking. The author does not present in any detail how this percentage is generated.

The book does shine in its reporting about current events, and that is its strongest point. It's also particularly striking how few numbers it actually uses. Apparently, this is a part of its success since so few people are actually numerate. If you are a little on the numerate side, and want to learn about how statistics are actually computed, look elsewhere. If you want to see how statistics relates to current events in general, consider this book.

(3.5 stars. Amazon really needs to update their star system, speaking of numeracy; it seems that we should be able to highlight how much of the final star that we choose.)

Statistics, Explained for the Rest of Us
If you ever wondered how numbers can affect your everyday life then "Numbers Rule Your World" is a book not to be missed. A professional statistician, Kaiser Fung has managed to write a wonderfully readable account revealing how many aspects of our daily activities--whether going to Disneyland, flying on an airline, or applying for a bank loan--are influenced by statistics. A book you won't put down once you've started. Educational and thoroughly enjoyable!

If numbers rule the world, this book helps you understand the weaknesses in those rules
I have always been frustrated by books on statistics that appear to be written for people who already know statistics.This is a book that breaks that mold.

Numbers rule your world is a solid book for non-statisticians to understand the principles and more importantly how statistics can bias what you read and how information is presented in making decisions.The author, Kaiser Fung, does a fine job creating a book that is accessible, interesting and far reaching.He does this by telling a series of stories that revolve around a contentious issue such as using stoplights on freeway on ramps, the efficacy of testing, etc. to illustrate key concepts in statistics.

The author talks about major challenges and the weakness in some statistical applications.This is not a boring book about standard deviation or sampling errors, rather Fung tells the story behind the numbers, discussion motivation, history, approach and how numbers play a role.The writing at times is a little dry, but the topics are interesting.One of the strengths of this book is the fact that many of the case examples are about things that have not been prevalent in the popular media, so you get important ideas illustrated by fresh stories.

There are many ways to talk about how people use and abuse numbers and statistics.Most concentrate on technical aspects and do not take the time to get behind the stories.Fung does and this makes for an enjoyable and interesting book, even for people who have forgotten everything about stats.

With Depth, And Figures To Support
It is hard not to make the comparison between "Numbers Rule Your World" and "Freakonomics".Even the book has made a reference once.Ten real life case studies are used, paired up in five chapters, to illustrate how different aspects of statistics affect our lives.Blogger statistician Kaiser Fung has made the topic surprisingly accessible, narrated in an engaging manner.Each chapter, the author picks two contrasting statistically related topics, juxtaposes them by taking turn to have the story told, and arrives at a conclusion.The narration is honest, impartially inquired from different angles.One of the author's objectives - besides convincing us that like it or not, numbers play a major role in our world today - I believe, is to expand our mind and horizon when interpreting certain situations as numbers are presented.And to appreciate what goes on behind the scene in your everyday life.

To impart the various aspects of statistical thinking upon his readers, the author uses the case studies of highway engineers versus Disney `Imagineers', epidemiologists versus credit modelers, insurers versus test developer (education), anti-doping agencies (sport) versus polygraph (lie detector), and the chances of jet crashes versus jackpots.Each case study - unlike Freakonomics - is backed up sufficiently by figures and facts.At times, I have to slow down my reading and think through the numbers, which I do greatly appreciate.

In practical term, how would reading "Numbers Rule Your World" help your work and life?For one, when you take in the news around you, you may wish to see things in a different perspective.Should you take in the reported figures on the papers as they are?Why are things or processes made that way?Some see an imminent risk, others do not.Should you follow the crowd?At the end of the book, the author has made a bold statement that if you know how to use numbers in making everyday decisions, you rule the world.While I am unsure if most of us has the ability and even access to a reliable data-set in using numbers in making decisions, this book does change the way how I see this world operates when it comes down to numbers.

Terrific book on how numbers and statistics affect our lives
Kaiser Fung has written a clear and insightful book to help us understand and make sense out of the perplexing world of numbers and statistics and the impact of their use or misuse on business, ethics, business, politics, education, safety, quality of life, organizations and society.

In a highly narrative style devoid of technical jargon, it presents clear examples how numbers; their understanding, use and interpretation play a major role in many aspects of our daily lives:

* SAT scores, validity, reliability, fairness and test bias concerns.
* Credit scores, what they measure, their role and impact in our access to credit.
* Enjoying the family vacation at Disneyland, reducing wait times at amusement park rides.
* Avoiding traffic congestion.
* Are our airlines indeed safer than those in third world countries?
* Improving our health and managing disease outbreaks
* Catching cheaters in business, professional sports and the lottery

The major contribution of this book is how well and clearly the author explains the benefits and trade-offs of the application of statistical techniques in solving problems, while helping the reader have an appreciation of the power and limitations of many of these methods.

After reading this book and its many real life stories, the reader is unlikely to look at numbers the same way. The observations and conclusions the author provides at the end of each story or example are lessons in reasoning and analysis that will last a life time. The book is indeed a joy to read and I highly recommend it.

... Read more

Product Description

***Rated one of the Top 10 Investing & Trading Books of 2009 by SFO Magazine***

Are you worried about the risks associated with the stock market? Are you tired of seeing your returns diminish month after month, quarter after quarter?

Are you looking to potentially increase your trading profits AND reduce your risk level? How do you do this? With ETFs.

The First Quantified Book on Trading ETFs

TradingMarkets is excited to announce the launch of High Probability ETF Trading. Written by Larry Connors and Cesar Alvarez, this book is designed to give you the trading edge you need for success. The strategies have been tested back as far as 1993, all of which have performed with a high accuracy, some up to 90%. While there are many ways to trade ETFs, applying these strategies can increase your trading success.

How Do the Strategies Work?

You will identify the signals at the close of the day. Then, you simply place your orders and exit when the signal occurs, usually 3 to 7 trading days later. That's it!

Are the Strategies Difficult to Learn?

No! In fact all have only a few rules and all the strategies can be learned in an evening. You'll be able to apply the strategies to the next trading day.

Do You Have Strategies for Shorting ETFs?

Yes. Every strategy is designed to be traded both on the long side (especially for bull markets) and the short side (especially for bear markets). ... Read more

Customer Reviews (16)

Save your time and money, just search RSI(2)
I saw this in my local library. Read it in 30 minutes, a testament to it's content. Basically, it is all short term relative strength strategies that buy on dips and then regress to the mean. Search RSI(2) and you find the same strategies. Basically, this book is a blog post elsewhere, and it's being sold like it's 1995 where "secrets" to the markets had to be bought in hardcover form. When market conditions change and momentum strategies dominate, he can just change the rules to buy on strong readings, and resell the same book. Now that's how you make money!

TRADING WITHOUT STOPS
Great book if you trade without stops.Useless if you use stop loss orders.

Trading ideas worth a lot more than $50, but be careful
I give Mr.Conners much credit for laying out his trading rules with exceptional clarity, and for presenting the backtested results across many markets. The book is not vague and subjective. One rarely sees this in the, sadly, very questionable industry of trading advice. He is sharing an authentic "edge" he has discovered, which is more than one can say for the vast majority in this field.

The book is not perfect. He emphasizes the percentage of profitable trades and the average profit per trade. All well and good. But what was the worst trade? What was the maximum drawdown of a portfolio taking all his signals? What would the results be subtracting typical slippage and commissions? What was the longest losing period? One needs to know these data before starting a do-it-yourself trading program.

For the small price you pay, you get more than your money's worth in useful ideas from a brilliant, creative trading mind. In my opinion it would take prior trading experience, more research, and/or the purchase of one of the author's very expensive related services to implement the ideas safely and effectively. Indeed, the book seems to be a loss-leader for the advanced products. That stated, I liked it much more than most trading books I've read.

great set of simple ideas...
This book presents a series of straightforward, easy to implement trading strategies. Simple things do work in the markets. Well worth a look.

a big come-on
The book may have some value, but it's just a big come-on for his web based services. Save your money. There aren't enough details in the book to do you any good. ... Read more

Product Description

Written by two leading statisticians, this applied introduction to the mathematics of probability and statistics emphasizes the existence of variation in almost every process, and how the study of probability and statistics helps us understand this variation. Designed for students with a background in calculus, this book continues to reinforce basic mathematical concepts with numerous real-world examples and applications to illustrate the relevance of key concepts.

Customer Reviews (43)

What a horrible textbook...
One of the worst textbooks I have ever used. You will be lucky if you are able to figure out even half of the end of chapter problems after reading this book. If it was not required I would never use this book and will be selling it as soon as I finish the course.

Not a worthwhile purchase
My review is for the International Edition, but I presume it is textually almost identical to the US version.

I got this book for a course I was doing externally through university - it claims to be suitable for "students at the junior level who have taken a good standard course in calculus", but I was decidedly unimpressed by the book's lack of logical progression. The authors would often state something and jump to the conclusion without explaining how they got there. It also failed to build a holistic picture so that one developed a problem-by-problem ability in the subject, not a conceptual framework. I ended up falling back on two books, Larsen/Marx (1986) and Mendenhall (1990), both of which were more suited to the intended level and explained carefully where they were going. There is also some evidence of a lack of proof-reading at times with grammatical and spelling issues (including on the first line of the preface!)

It's Statistics
Come on, it's Probability and Statistics. I can't give it a good review.

But the shipment was fast and was in good condition.

Book is pretty good too.

terrible
Perhaps the least useful math book I've ever had the horror of being assigned.This one has the distinct trait of being completely useless as a reference book.For a book which appears to have virtually no content outside of theorems and examples, you'd think it would excel at providing useful references to students.Instead it appears to lack any sense of order or coherency and which makes it nearly impossible to follow the examples by cramming them in and failing to even title them outside of table numberings.Trying to scan this book for a particular topic is like trying to find a needle in a haystack, except they don't tell you that sometimes the needle isn't even there, they left the useful step out so four more examples (all nearly as useless) could be crammed on the same page.

I would put zero stars if it were possible.

This is the worst math book ever written
Awful... There is nothing else to say about it. The authors seem to be ADHD and the book lacks any structure or meaningful interpretation. The examples are poor and just scattered throughout the chapter. Many times you are reading something and you don't know if its part of the example or the text explaining something else. I repeat, THE WORST MATH BOOK I HAVE EVER USED. EVER. ... Read more

Product Description
In High Probability Trading Strategies, author and well-known trading educator Robert Miner skillfully outlines every aspect of a practical trading plan–from entry to exit–that he has developed over the course of his distinguished twenty-plus-year career. The result is a complete approach to trading that will allow you to trade confidently in a variety of markets and time frames. Written with the serious trader in mind, this reliable resource details a proven approach to analyzing market behavior, identifying profitable trade setups, and executing and managing trades–from entry to exit.

Note: CD-ROM/DVD and other supplementary materials are not included as part of eBook file. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (74)

great book for intermediate level investors
Not that easy to read for a stock book, a lot of calculations, but Iit's presents an objective way to trade. I don't know how well it performs since I haven't tried it yet, but remember, the market has the human factor in it that you can't predict with any tools. Still on of the best books out there about trading.

Something for Everyone
This book gives you a great trade set up from start to finish.I have never been able to really understand wave counts until I read this book.He makes it easy and practical to understand wave structures.Just the information on how to exit your position, no matter how you trade, is well worth the price of the book.

Top book for every trader or invester
High Probability Trading Strategies by Robert Miner is very well written. The trading concepts are basic and easy to understand. Before I read this book, I had finished my first book (Dynamic Trading) an understanding of all of the concepts Time, Price, Pattern, Momentum including Entry/Exit signal. The book brought it together for me and helped me improve my trading success. This book taught me easily to identify corrective or implusive pattern. It is the best for setups trade to entry or exit the trade in the right time. After you finished reading the book and DVD I guarantee all the trader can written complete trading plan from the entry to exit trade.

I bought and studied so many trading books but for me these 2 books written by Robert Miner are the best. He is my best teacher.

I definitely recommend this book to all traders and investor.

An underrated work on technical analysis
First of all, if you use Elliott Wave and its accompanying Fibonacci analysis, I believe this book is a must read.If you do not use Elliott Wave or Fibonacci analysis, if you simply make your own trading or investing decisions, I think you should consider reading this book.

In my opinion, for Elliott Wave specifically, the magnum opus continues to be Prechter & Frosts' "Elliott Wave Principle".For Fibonacci price & time analysis that is critical to applying Elliott Wave, I believe the primary masterworks on the subject are Robert Miner's two books, "High Probability Trading Strategies" being his most recent.Mr. Miner's treatment of both Fibonacci price and time analysis is better than I've found anywhere else - but specifically, I've found no one is comparable to Miner when it comes to Fibonacci time analysis.

I'm going to make one more comment about this book as it pertains to *practical application*.Fibonacci analysis to some extent, but certainly Elliott Wave in particular, has stymied more than its share of traders & investors.Mr. Miner has specifically written this book to help practitioners put Elliott Wave & Fibonacci to practical use in their strategies.Personally, I think Mr. Miner goes too far in his aversiveness to all Elliott Theory beyond the most simplistic.However, it fits his resolute focus on practical application, which is to be admired.

My strongest recommendation, once again, is if Elliott Wave is already part of your trading/investing process.In that case, this book deserves multiple reads & a place on your desk.If you do not use Elliott Wave but do use Fibonacci analysis add this book to your short list for reading.If you do not use either Elliott Wave or Fibonacci but do make your own trading/investing decisions, you should consider reading this book towards your own education on the structure of market price.

High Probability Trading Strategies
The item can in sooner than predicted in an excellent condition.Packing is highly appreciated as it was boxed nice and securely. ... Read more

Product Description
This textbook is an introduction to probability theory using measure theory. It is designed for graduate students in a variety of fields (mathematics, statistics, economics, management, finance, computer science, and engineering) who require a working knowledge of probability theory that is mathematically precise, but without excessive technicalities. The text provides complete proofs of all the essential introductory results. Nevertheless, the treatment is focused and accessible, with the measure theory and mathematical details presented in terms of intuitive probabilistic concepts, rather than as separate, imposing subjects. In this new edition, many exercises and small additional topics have been added and existing ones expanded. The text strikes an appropriate balance, rigorously developing probability theory while avoiding unnecessary detail.

Contents:

• The Need for Measure Theory
• Probability Triples
• Further Probabilistic Foundations
• Expected Values
• Inequalities and Convergence
• Distributions of Random Variables
• Stochastic Processes and Gambling Games
• Discrete Markov Chains
• More Probability Theorems
• Weak Convergence
• Characteristic Functions
• Decomposition of Probability Laws
• Conditional Probability and Expectation
• Martingales
• General Stochastic Processes

Customer Reviews (7)

Exceptional balance between breadth and depth
I am using this book as a refresher to prepare for a Stochastic Calculus course. I have read about half of it now and I can say it's one of the best mathematical texts I've come across. In fact, I find it enjoyable to read this book.(I can't say the same for all of the mathematics texts I have had to read. I am a senior in my undergrad and have taken a total of 16 courses in mathematics). It provides an excellent overview of the material leading into rigorous measure theoretic probability and is as much an excellent work of mathematics as it is of English writing. Very logical, very straightforward and efficient in terms of presentation.

Outstanding Introduction
This was the first book I bought when I was learning advanced probability theory. I've also used Billingsley (a classic, but a little hard to digest) & Ash & Doleans-Dade (very well written and a comprehensive text), but often return to Rosenthal because the fundamentals are so clearly explained and the language and organization of the book make such sense. The book is fairly short, yet covers the important topics very well. Proofs are sometimes not as rigorously developed as some might prefer, but I found them sufficient for an introductory text. Exercises are reasonable, but I would have traded a few more remarks, examples, and narrative for some of them. Generally, an outstanding introductory text.

A delightful read and a great introduction.
I took this book from the library during a course in measure-theoretic probability, and how lucky I was to come across it!

A very well structured book, the choice of material (for an introduction) is excellent.
As the title suggests, the book is rather rigorous (most results are with proofs, which helps understand the theory better), and at the same time the author does a good job at motivating the introduction of the mathematical concepts required to understand (rigorous) probability.

The best part is that, for any mathematician, this book will also be a lot of fun to read!

I would like to sincerely congratulate the author for making something this really good.

There are better, but it deserves the 5 stars.
This book I would recommend to prepare you to study Billingslley's Probability and Measure theory. I personally prefer Jacot and Proter's Probability Essentials, for this preparation; however, I can't underestimate this book's quality, hence the 5 stars.

A gem
This is my bedside book at the present time.
It's compact, written with immense respect for the reader and even covers some
financial applications.
It's recalling the measure theory I learned as an undergraduate with the right style.
So much better than some of the "Probabilty from dummies" I have put away.
When I finish the book I hope to move on to some of the heavier books with a clear idea of where I am going.
... Read more

Customer Reviews (37)

Attain confidence in Sales
Good read. Really good information on Targeting Prospects and Closing sales. The insight on "Disqualification" is very interesting. Really teaches you how to use your leverage of strength. This book provides great confidence and motivation for sales people. I recommend

This is the best sales book - ever!
I first read High-Probability Selling over 12 years ago.This book's sales technology is the backbone to my company, Revedia.I have read it at least 50 more times since.I live this stuff in every aspect of my life.I have bought 100's of copies for sales people I have worked with, and then we continuously discuss the book.I have trained literally thousands of sales people with this most sound sales training.It is important to understand in sales not to waste anyone's time - this book is all about not wasting time and inviting your prospective clients to disqualify themselves.Only spending time and helping the clients that want & need your product.What a great concept!It works!
Jeffrey DeArmond
President
Revedia
www.revedia.com

A great book - and - A response to Mr. Wagner
I went back and forth for some time before submitting this review, but after reading some of Mr. Wagner's other reviews of various books and authors (primarily in sales and marketing) I felt motivated to publish this review as a counterbalance to his comments.

I have counted Jacques Werth as a mentor and (if I may be so bold) friend, since meeting him in early 2000. I met him at my first HPS seminar.I have taken follow-up seminars with his company and trainers as refresher courses a couple times.

I also met Mr. Wagner at my first HPS seminar (February, 2000) and subsequently worked for him as a contract prospector.At the seminar where we met, Mr. Wagner was training to become a High Probability Sales Trainer. After the seminar, and over the course of a couple years, periodically, Mr. Wagner would bill me out to his clients and have me make dials.He would supply the list and give me the offers to use.

Reviewing aspects of this experience, I believe Mr. Wagner fundamentally fails to grasp the full meaning and implications of the High Probability process. In essence, he has failed to make the necessary shift in paradigm out of the "traditional" approach which High Probability Selling requires.

His statement that the HPS book is not complete, and that one should not buy the book unless one plans to take the seminar - which he implies is expensive - I find to be a petty and mean-spirited criticism.

Surely any serious professional attends training.The reason to buy books like "High Probability Selling" is to allow us to cheaply get a glimpse of other approaches.If you can, I recommend you buy Mr. Wagner's book (entitled something like, "How to be the number one Salesperson at your company") and make your own comparison.

Anyone can read Tom Hopkins and adopt a few rhetorical tricks and say they've "learned selling." However, "traditional sales methods" are based in manipulation - and it is not possible to create relationships of trust and respect if your method of dealing with people is based in manipulation. Studies of consumer purchasing indicate that trust and respect are the most important values we seek in a sales person. High Probability Selling is based entirely around non-manipulative sales methods - to quote Mr. Wagner himself (from when he was a proponent of High Probability Selling), "You do the math."

I wholeheartedly recommend Jacques Werth's approach and know that it changed my perspective on business and even human relationships.

Refreshing, Pragmatic, and Gutsy
Let me preface my comments by stating that, in addition to reading the book, I have participated in an HPS prospecting seminar, only. I will do my best to confine my comments to that with which I am familiar.

As for the pluses of High Probability Selling: I have little to add to what has already been said, other than it outlines an approach that is at once easy (be totally honest, straightforward, and genuine) and hard (be totally honest, straightforward, and genuine), particularly if you report to a manager who subscribes to 'alternative' methods.

With respect to the minuses: My main criticism of HPS, the book - which is somewhat trifling - is not the parable format (though not my preference, business fables were hot at the time, and continue to be popular), but the utter rosiness of the tale. With few exceptions, everything magically falls into place for the protagonist, Salvatore Esman (code for, 'Salesman' for those not hip to the moniker), and his cohorts.

For a work that advocates Keeping It Real, I found this aspect of the book somewhat incongruous. If I could take away a half, rather than whole star, for this perceived shortcoming, I would.

As for the HPS method - which most reviewers appear to be critiquing, rather than the text - I challenge the assertion that HPS is a feel-good system in which salespeople mitigate the pain of rejection by only engaging prospects who don't say no.

If anything, HPS is rejection-seeking, as refusal is the mark of low-probability, time-wasting prospects. In any case, one can safely say that HPS is confrontational, in the sense that practitioners actively and repeatedly confirm whether or not prospects want the components of their offering. Though HP salespeople never ask for the order, they are effectively closing throughout the entire sales process. This is hardly rejection-avoidant behavior.

If I understand correctly, while they do not hope for it, HP salespeople welcome rejection, as it signals a suspect's status as a low-probability prospect, at the present time. Rejection is the saleperson's cue to move on and return to the prospect later, with a different offer.

Whether one agrees or disagrees with the author's provocative claims, or finds that HPS is well or poorly suited to their product, I think all can agree that a person's definition of Selling, and their assumptions about prospects and the buying process, have important implications.

On that basis alone, this book is worth reading.

Pretty good insight into how to make sales with a new twist.
A very good wake up call to "old school" salespeople.Essentially this book says you should deal with only "High-Probablity" prospects (ones who are ready, willing and able to buy). If I could only deal with those I would be retired by now.

The only problem with this approach is: if we could all only deal with High-Probablity prospects it wouldnt really be "selling" would it?It would be order taking or consulting. Are we salespeople or not? People still need to be "sold" on the benefits of choosing your product don't they?

So while there are good ideas here and is good for anyone to read (who wants to increase their sales) it is really a reverse psychology "I'm not here to sell you anything, you don't really want to buy from me do you?" approach to weeding out time wasters. In essence, the customers should be enthusiastic and willing to share information with you if they are serious. This is partially true.

I guess you could call this more "I'm not here to convince you to buy, I am here as a professional to discover your needs with a gathering facts based approach".To sum it up: ask the hard questions first (can you afford it, do you want it, who has to approve it, etc) so there are no surprises later (and time wasted).A good book though. ... Read more

Product Description
Going beyond the conventional mathematics of probability theory, this study views the subject in a wider context. It discusses new results, along with applications of probability theory to a variety of problems. The book contains many exercises and is suitable for use as a textbook on graduate-level courses involving data analysis. Aimed at readers already familiar with applied mathematics at an advanced undergraduate level or higher, it is of interest to scientists concerned with inference from incomplete information. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (22)

Impressive
This book does an impressive job of replacing ad hoc rules of statistics with rigorous logic, but it is difficult enough to fully understand that most people will only use small parts of it.

He emphasizes that probability theory consists of logical reasoning about the imperfect information we have, and repeatedly rants against the belief that probabilities or randomness represent features of nature that exist independent of our knowledge. Even something seemingly simple such as a toss of an ordinary coin cannot have some objectively fixed frequency unless concepts such as "toss" are specified in unreasonable detail. What we think of as randomness is best thought of as a procedure for generating results of which we are ignorant.

He derives his methods from a few simple axioms which appear close to common sense, and don't look much like they are specifically designed to produce statistical rules.

He is careful to advocate Bayesian methods for an idealized robot, and avoids addressing questions of whether fallible humans should sometimes do something else. In particular, his axiom that the robot should never ignore information is a goal that will probably reduce the quality of human reasoning in some cases where there's too much information for humans to handle well.

I'm convinced that when his methods can be properly applied and produce different results than frequentist methods do, we should reject the frequentist results. But it's not obvious how easy it is to apply his methods properly, nor is it obvious whether he has accurately represented the beliefs of frequentists (who I suspect often don't think clearly enough about the issues he raises to be clearly pinned down).

He does a good job of clarifying the concept of "induction", showing that we shouldn't try to make it refer to some simple and clearly specified rule, but rather we should think of it as a large set of rules for logical reasoning, much like the concept of "science".

This book will someday replace Oxygen as the thing we breathe
Every scientist should read this book. It deals with the most fundamental question of experimental science: how do we assign plausibility based on data? What if we have very little data? What if we have none?

It includes foundations of probability theory (introduced in a conversational and often funny tone), builds very slowly to its conclusions, and deals with most common criticisms of Bayesian analysis and MaxEnt methods, often based on misunderstandings. Also included are examples of applications, and places where Jaynes leaves the door open to further development. After all, this field is far from complete.

This book is a manifesto. It embodies a sense of urgency and righteousness ever-present in scientific revolution. Such a sense is not misplaced here.

Most important book ever written in Science
They should give you a PhD just for reading this book. You're going to be that much smarter.
Thank you ET Jaynes for finally providing a satisfactory theory of conditional probability. Now I finally can kick all the heavy-baggage measure theory definitions into the bin, which on the one hand are useless for an engineer as you don't want to carry around the sigma-field formalism for each new problem you're working on, but on the other hand you feel helpless to apply probability calculus without it because it's the only formal definition of conditional probability (unless you consider the tautological P(A|B) := P(AB)/P(B) a foundation..)
Thank you for ridding me of the frequentist viewpoint, which other Bayesian books have not achieved because their theory was flawed as well.
Everything is falling into place now. No wonder Statistics is so hard, because it is..wrong. You either absolve yourself of a foundation and merrily apply rules, or you waste a lot of time twisting your mind to fit each new problem into the unreasonable frequentist assumptions.

A masterpiece of mathematical exposition
I have rarely learned so much from one book. This book is somewhat unusual among mathematical texts in that it is heavy on prose and (compared to other texts) light on equations. However, don't get the idea that it is any less rigorous! It simply focuses on precisely what most math books neglect: exhaustive explanation of the concepts...and to very good effect. Jaynes (and his editor) are possibly the most articulate writers of mathematics I've ever read. If you can read equations like English, you may not appreciate this. The rest of us will.
Summarizing the content: The book very exhaustively demonstrates how Bayesian statistical approaches subsume rather than compete with "orthodox" (sampling theory-derived) statistics. Importantly, it begins by deriving the sum and product rules (which in other texts are typically presented as axioms) from "common sense" considerations. In other words, what is usually treated as "given" in other statistics texts is shown to, in fact, depend on even more fundamental (and, thus, indisputable) considerations of what constitutes rational plausible reasoning. This places the whole endeavor of statistics on firmer ground than any other text I've seen. The book is worth buying for the first few chapters alone, but it just gets better from there.
Jaynes goes on to link Bayes rule to information-theoretic considerations and build up probability as an extended form of logic (as the title implies). In some cases this yields a new and deeper understanding of "orthodox statistical practice." In others it exposes (and explains) the absurdities of strictly frequentist approaches. Again, I have rarely learned so much from one book.
One caveat: It does not at all require a statistics background, but, obviously, some of Jaynes (mildly polemical) discourse will, of course, be lost on you without it.

More clarifying than groundbreaking
Since the frequentist vs. Bayesian controversy is mentioned right in the book, it didn't set off that controversy. A lot of the edition I acquired is out of date. The supplementary readings recommended by Jaynes make it much more worthwhile, especially examples and worked-out problems.


As Jaynes predicted, it's still entirely relevant 10 years later. Not much was altered posthumously. The reason it's going to get nothing but good reviews is that it's an overview, not an argument on a controversy or a textbook. ... Read more

Product Description
Schaum's Outline of Probability, Second Edition, focuses on non-calculus probability theory, making it ideal for humanities and science majors who study practical statistics for problem solving. This popular Schaum's study guide provides new material on descriptive statistics,hi-square distribution, and more. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (15)

Quintessential Schaum
A great book for learning Probability - very crisp, difficult examples, and ton of information densely packed. A must for any PhD student.

A Warning on Typographical Errors
The reason for this review, is to warn the potential buyer that there exists a large number of typographical errors throughout the text. The following are a few errors within the first chapter:

On page 5, Fig 1-3 (a) is a Venn diagram of the symmetric difference of sets A and B, while the Venn diagram is being described as the union of A and B.
On page 6, the symmetric difference is correctly described, but is improperly defined by the first given definition which is (A union B) \ (A \ B). The proper definition is (A union B) \ (A intersect B).
On page 18, problem 1.19 has an error that would be difficult for someone immature in mathematics to notice. He uses the distributive law while incorrectly replaces an intersection with a union on the second and third line; then correcting it on the fourth.
On page 18, problem 1.20 (c), he has a ')' when a '(' is required. This typo is more obvious than the previous typo.

If you wish to avoid typographical errors such as the selected few described above, possibly the first edition has less. You can view the last two mentioned errors on Google Books in the preview.

Ignoring the typographical errors throughout the book, the book is well done and very complete. There are many problems to work through to provide the required practice. As the preface mentions, the 'main prerequisite' is high school algebra. If the typographical errors did not exist, I would rate the book 5 stars; the book does not deviate from its intended audience and executes its purpose well.

OK, but not great
The book provides a very basic intro to Probability.OK for a first intro to probability for lower-level college courses, but too basic for upper-level undergrad and graduate-level intros to probability.

I purchased as a supplement to the Ross text (7th ed.).I found the solved problems to be significantly simpler than the Ross text and therefore not significantly informative beyond understanding the basics.Like other commenter, I find that "Probability, Random Variables, and Random Processes" is more appropriate.

WARNING: there quite a few errors in the solved problems and also errors in the text (e.g. correlation on pg 130 & 131).IMHO those are inexcusable.

I Like It
Like other books in their math series, it is an excellent workbook or refresher course, but cannot be used as a primary textbook. Good for:
**supplementary exercises if you are currently taking a probability course
**you just finished a course, but need more practice
**you took a course, oh so many years ago, but need to brush up
**you have a real calculation you have to do (e.g. you have polling data, and want know if marital status and voting in a presidential election are independent)

It has these chapters:
**set theory (venn diagrams)
**techniques of counting (notation, diagrams, binomials)
**introduction to probability (sample spaces, axioms)
**conditional probability and independence
**random variables (making calculations)
**binomial and normal distributions
**markov processes (markov chains and matrix calculations)
**descriptive statistics (mean, variance, standard deviation)
**chi-square distribution (calculating goodness of fit)

This happy workbook has lots of worked out examples to show you how it is done, and lots of supplementary problems with answers so you can practice on your own. Since the chapters are only weakly dependent on each other, you can skip around and do not have to go through them in order.

Great Overview
I highly recommend this book. The power is in the worked problems.In class we are using Sheldon Ross's book but I think it was too hard to read. This book simplified a good amount of the material and boosted my confidence in the class. Again highly recommended. ... Read more

Product Description
In Music and Probability, David Temperley explores issues in music perception and cognition from a probabilistic perspective. The application of probabilistic ideas to music has been pursued only sporadically over the past four decades, but the time is ripe, Temperley argues, for a reconsideration of how probabilities shape music perception and even music itself. Recent advances in the application of probability theory to other domains of cognitive modeling, coupled with new evidence and theoretical insights about the working of the musical mind, have laid the groundwork for more fruitful investigations. Temperley proposes computational models for two basic cognitive processes, the perception of key and the perception of meter, using techniques of Bayesian probabilistic modeling. Drawing on his own research and surveying recent work by others, Temperley explores a range of further issues in music and probability, including transcription, phrase perception, pattern perception, harmony, improvisation, and musical styles.

Music and Probability—the first full-length book to explore the application of probabilistic techniques to musical issues—includes a concise survey of probability theory, with simple examples and a discussion of its application in other domains. Temperley relies most heavily on a Bayesian approach, which not only allows him to model the perception of meter and tonality but also sheds light on such perceptual processes as error detection, expectation, and pitch identification. Bayesian techniques also provide insights into such subtle and advanced issues as musical ambiguity, tension, and "grammaticality," and lead to interesting and novel predictions about compositional practice and differences between musical styles. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (1)

Shows the link between musical style, perception, and probability
If music perception is largely probabilistic in nature this should not be surprising since probability pervades almost every aspect of mental life. Thus the author invokes a number of concepts from probability theory and probabilistic modeling, relying most heavily on Bayes Rule, an axiom of probability. In music perception, one is often confronted with a pattern of notes and wishes to know the underlying structure that gave rise to it. Bayes' Rule allows us to identify that underlying structure. The author also makes use of concepts from information theory such as the idea of cross-entropy. Cross-entropy shows in a quantitative way how well a model predicts a body of data. In chapter 2 the author surveys all the probability theory needed for the following chapters. He also shows a few simple examples, and discusses the applications of probability theory to other areas of study. In chapter three the author addresses a basic problem of music perception - the identification meter - and proposes a probabilistic model of this process.

Chapters 4 and 6 examine the problem of key perception from a probabilistic standpoint. The author first proposes a model of key perception in monophonic music (melodies). This model is then expanded to accommodate polyphonic music. With regard to both meter and key, the models proposed are not merely models of information retrieval, but also shed light on other aspects of perception. In particular they lead very naturally to ways of identifying the probability of actual note patterns. This in turn provides a way of modeling cognitive processes such as error detection, expectation, and pitch identification, as well as more subtle musical phenomena such as musical ambiguity, tension, and "tonalness". These issues are explored in chapter 5 with regard to monophonic music and chapter 7 with regard to polyphonic music. The final three chapters of the book explore a range of further issues in music and probability. Chapter eight surveys some recent work by other authors in which probabilistic methods are applied to a variety of problems in music perception and cognition: transcription, phrase perception, pattern perception, harmony, and improvisation. Chapter nine considers the idea of construing probabilistic models as descriptions of musical styles and thus as hypotheses about cognitive processes involved in composition.

In summary, this book is a good one in demonstrating that a probabilistic perspective opens the door to a new and powerful approach to the study of music creation. Highly recommended for all who have an interest in algorithmic composition. The following is the table of contents:

1. Introduction 1

2.Probabilistic Foundations and Background 7
2.1 Elementary Probability 7
2.2 Conditional Probability and Bayes' Rule 8
2.3 Other Probabilistic Concepts 14
2.4 Early Work on Music and Probability 19

3. Melody I: The Rhythm Model 23
3.1 Rhythm and Meter 23
3.2 Previous Models of Meter Perception 26
3.3 A Probabilistic Rhythm Model 30
3.4 The Generative Process 31
3.5 The Meter-Finding Process 36
3.6 Testing the Model on Meter-Finding 41
3.7 Problems and Possible Improvements 43

4. Melody II: The Pitch Model 49
4.1 Previous Models of Key-Finding 50
4.2 The Pitch Model 56
4.3 Testing the Model on Key-Finding 62

5. Melody III: Expectation and Error Detection 65
5.1 Calculating the Probability of a Melodic Surface 65
5.2 Pitch Expectation 66
5.3 Rhythmic Expectation 71
5.4 Error Detection 74
5.5 Further Issues 76

6. A Polyphonic Key-Finding Model 79
6.1 A Pitch-Class-Set Approach to Key-Finding 79
6.2 The Generative Process 83
6.3 The Key-Finding Process 85
6.4 Comparing Distributional Models of Key-Finding 89
6.5 Further Issues in Key-Finding 92

7. Applications of the Polyphonic Key-Finding Model 99
7.1 Key Relations 99
7.2 Tonalness 108
7.3 Tonal Ambiguity and Clarity 116
7.4 Another Look at Major and Minor 121
7.5 Ambiguous Pitch-Collections in Common-Practice Music 125
7.6 Explaining Common Strategies of Tonal Harmony 131

8. Bayesian Models of Other Aspects of Music 139
8.1 Probabilistic Transcription Models 139
8.2 Bod: The Perception of Phrase Structure 143
8.3 Raphael and Stoddard: Harmonic Analysis 147
8.4 Mavromatis: Modeling Greek Chant Improvisation 151
8.5 Saffran et al.: Statistical Learning of Melodic Patterns 156

9. Style and Composition 159
9.1 Some Simple Cross-Entropy Experiments 161
9.2 Modeling Stylistic Differences 166
9.3 Testing Schenkerian Theory 172

10. Communicative Pressure 181
10.1 Communicative Pressure in Rules of Voice-Leading 182
10.2 The Syncopation-Rubato Trade-Off 184
10.3 Other Examples of Communicative Pressure in Rhythm 191
10.4 "Trading Relationships" 197
10.5 Low-Probability Events in Constrained Contexts 202
10.6 Conclusions 205 ... Read more

Product Description
Used by hundreds of thousands of students, market-leading INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS, Thirteenth Edition, blends proven coverage with new innovations to ensure you gain a solid understanding of statistical concepts--and see their relevance to your everyday life. The new thirteenth edition retains the text?s straightforward presentation and traditional outline for descriptive and inferential statistics while incorporating modern technology--including computational software and interactive visual tools--to help you master statistical reasoning and skillfully interpret statistical results. Exciting learning tools like MyPersonal Trainer, MyApplet, and MyTip ensure that you thoroughly understand chapter material and give you hands-on experience putting it into action. Drawing from decades of classroom teaching experience, the authors clearly illustrate how to apply statistical procedures as they explain how to describe real sets of data, what statistical tests mean in terms of practical application, how to evaluate the validity of the assumptions behind statistical tests, and what to do when statistical assumptions have been violated. Statistics can be an intimidating course, but with this text you will be well prepared. With its thorough explanations, insightful examples, practical exercises, and innovative technology features, INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS, Thirteenth Edition, equips you with a firm foundation in statistical concepts, as well as the tools to apply them to the world around you. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (17)

Very good seller
My textbook came only three days after I placed the order. Very fast and decent description of the product that accidently left out the detail of the glued cover of the product. Nevertheless, no complaints from me other than I was wondering why the seller never included a tracking number on the shipment. Thank you very much Jolly Ranger.

Not for entry level Stats
I think this is a great text if you already know the material. I had to purchase for a required Stats 1600, entry level, class. It seems like the focus of this text is to confuse the student rather than educate. By midterm I found a Stats tutor and even he had trouble following the text and was amazed how the authors complicated relatively simple material. If possible try and avoid this text and Professors PLEASE stop using this text in your Stats classes!

Ok, Bordering on Good

This book is suitable for an introductory course in probability and statistics.That's about it.Heaven help you if you are using this book in a more advanced course because the problems don't come close to preparing you for the storm of pain some professors can inflict.

The book does a good job summarizing concepts and formulas.If you're expecting proofs, well, brace yourself for disappointment.If you fear proofs, then this book and you will get along swimmingly.

The biggest complaint is that there needs to be far more challenging homework problems.However, they do a great job of explaining how to use Minitab.

Very poorly written
I am enrolled in my Masters in Statistics and Epidemiology. For my Epi I had to take an introductory stats class and though I have taken classes that are far more complex, I felt this book lacked organization and perhaps the worst statistics book I have ever had to read. Thus it received a one star.

Did not use but looks good
Even though I didn't get to use this textbook it looked like a great intro to STATS. (That's why I gave it a 3 out of 5 stars). I took STATS in high school and the textbook was pretty old (written in the 90s or early 2000s). This one seemed as if it stuck to the needed material and took a step-by-step approach to introducing college students to the world of statistics. ... Read more

Product Description
This user-friendly resource helps readers grasp the concepts of probability and stochastic processes, so they can apply them in professional engineering practice. The book presents concepts clearly as a sequence of building blocks that are identified either as an axiom, definition, or theorem. This approach provides a better understanding of the material, which can be used to solve practical problems. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (18)

Perhaps an excellent book on the subject, but as far as an "introduction" goes...
First, I suppose I should mention that I am a student, and not a lecturer. Next, I'll sum up my opinion of this book by saying that it is a terrible stand-alone way of attempting to learn the material.

My largest concern with the text is that, past the cover of the book, it makes no attempt to be an introduction to anything. My main gripe in this respect is that the author doesn't attempt to explain the notation, beyond a very brief review here and there. A review of what, exactly, I'm not entirely sure. This wouldn't present a huge obstacle if one had a competent professor, but in my situation I was stuck with a lecturer who felt the book was good enough to teach directly, and I mean directly, from. Considering the huge dearth of examples in the text, this can create a massive problem for students that are actually new to the material.

Which prompts my next issue with the book. There are next to no examples for many of the sections. Many sections contain one example, which is useless and inapplicable to the homework problems and quiz problems (Which are all useless and inapplicable themselves without a solutions manual, especially when your professor doesn't take the time to go over them). -A quick aside here, I should note that this review is biased due to my experience with an inept professor. When the class regularly lets out half an hour early, there's no excuse not to take the time to go back over the homework, since the TA's don't. With that in mind, with a decent lecturer, many of the problems with this text could be easily overcome- Why there aren't at least some solutions, or solutions for the quiz problems, is beyond me, as it would really aid understanding to see how one or two actual problems are worked, instead of just showing a graph and calling it an example.

To sum it up, this book is incredibly frustrating.

How is this getting good reviews?
So from a student that actually is using this book, this is terrible. Very few examples, skimming over content, and no answers! WHAT GOOD IS THIS BOOK IF YOU ONLY USE IT TO GET YOUR HOMEWORK PROBLEMS FROM THE CLASS?! I've learned more from searching wikipedia on the subject than reading this book. Maybe schools should choose books based on their content and their help to students rather than some sort of corporate money game with the book companies. I could only imagine those are the people giving this book a good review, or they have never even cracked it open and tried to learn probability for their first time from it. Thank you for teaching me nothing and wasting my time.

Very Well-written Book
The text was very plain and the author actually makes it a point to expalin most of the symbols and notation.The book is written from a practcial, not theoretical, perspective although the theory is represented via proofs.Reads easily, but the examples are priceless.

Relatively good
Although the examples are good, theorems, properties, and so on, are nicely organized and highlighted, there are no solutions for problems.

It is not just this book, but I'm really tired of spending hours upon hours doing questions for which I will have no idea if I completed them correctly. I like to do homework to identify and fill the gaps in my knowledge, not to do best guesses and merely hope that I will eventually get the solutions against which to compare my answers. By then, the exam (or quiz) is already right around the bend and new material is already being covered.

Not so much...
Hardly a "friendly" and "introductory" text. The language, examples and feel of this book are more suited for someone with prior training in this subject. For the student facing the unfortunate situation of having to learn with this text it may be better to get another book and learn the material from it rather than waste a large amount of time with this one. For folks who already understand the subject I'm sure it's quite good. ... Read more

Product Description

Selling over 220,000 copies in its first edition, Schaum's Outline of Probability and Statistics has become a vital resource for the more than 977,000 college students who enroll in related probability and statistics courses each year. Its big-picture, calculus-based approach makes it an especially authoriatative reference for engineering and science majors. Now thoroughly update, this second edition includes vital new coverage of order statistics, best critical regions, likelihood ratio tests, and other key topics.

Customer Reviews (22)

Pretty Good
I had never studied these topics in college and was always curious about them. This book was a pretty good introduction for self study, but I have seen some that are a bit better, but much more expensive than this one. Recommended.

Glad it is still around
I have an old copy of this book that's kept together with duct tape. I have no idea how old Spiegel must be.This is a book I have used over the years to look up formulas, explain to co-workers how to do things, and show examples and worked problems. I heartily recommend this to anyone learning on their own (or with a weak enough instructor so it seems like it).

It helped me through many difficulties in probability and statistics
The most difficult class I had in my math major was probability and statistics. It was the last class I had to take and because of low enrollment, I was forced to take it at a neighboring college. Therefore, not only was I in an unfamiliar building, I also had a teacher that I had never had before. To that point, I had been either blessed or cursed, depending on your point of view, by having had only two different math teachers. The teacher for the probability and statistics class also had a style completely different from what I was accustomed too. Finally, since it was also the very last class I had to take as an undergraduate, it was difficult to overcome the disease of "senioritis", where one just wants to get it over with.
In an attempt to get overcome of these problems, I purchased a copy of this book at the local bookstore and worked through the problems. I set certain times in the week where I was to work only on these problems and when I was done I rewarded myself with small treats. I found the problems in this book to be reasonable reflections of what we were covering and the solutions made it much easier to understand what the instructor was saying.
In the end, I pulled a B in the class and was happy to get it. Much of that was due to the work I did with this book, it was at times a struggle and if the problems would not have been as easy to follow as they are, it is quite possible that I would have quit working them and suffered for it.

A great supplement to my text Intro to Mathematical Statistics by Hogg, McKean and Craig
I am currently taking a mathematical statistics class using Intro to Mathematical Statistics by Hogg, McKean and Craig.This is a great supplement.I gave it a 4 instead of a 5 because it could not replace a good textbook but as a supplement I would probably give it a 5.

Good as a refresher
This book is good as a "refesher", but those starting a probability course will find it hard to grasp theconcepts and ideas from probability and statistics. The beginner would be better off with the insightful book Understanding Probability from Cambridge University Press. This book contains also a great introduction to Bayesian statistics. ... Read more