Product Description
This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, ergodic theory, weak convergence of probability measures, stationary stochastic processes, and the Kalman-Bucy filter. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for self-study.

This new edition contains substantial revision and updated references. The reader will find a deeper study of topics such as the distance between probability measures, metrization of weak convergence, and contiguity of probability measures. Proofs for a number of some important results which were merely stated in the first edition have been added. The author has included new material on the probability of large deviations, on the central limit theorem for sums of dependent random variables, and on a discrete version of Ito's formula. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (12)

A True Gem
Both rigorous and tutorial.He starts with elementary material, but develops thatmaterial
in conjunction with simple cases of the advanced tools needed later. Perhaps the best
combination of precise thinking plus intuition in probability texts since Feller.

The book is written in the Kolmogorov's style.
The book is written in the Kolmogorov's well balanced style what is not surprising - A.Shiryaev was his pupil.

However, the text might benefit a lot would Springer apply more editorial work and hire a translator specializing in mathematics - too many stylistic and terminology bugs diminishing the book's obvious merits.

One could hardly name another book in probability of the same caliber.

A brief review
One of the more complete and clear general review about probability theory (hey, it's a graduate!)

Be Careful...I'm Captain Obvious
"Probability" is book number 95 in the GTM series. If you really read this book carefully, you will probably learn something (I think that Shiryayev proves this somewhere in the second chapter). This is probably one of the better books in the GTM series. You can purchase this text for a moderate price. You could, however, take advantage of the probable distribution of this text throughout your university libraries. I'm not saying that it's going to be there...I'm just saying that there's a chance.

A great probability book for both undergraduate and graduate learners
I write this to pay my highest respects for this guru mathematician's work. This is truly a great book, not only for graduate students but also undergraduate and researchers. The book covers 8 chapters, starting with classic approach, so that one can see the evolution of the theory of probability, and one could avoid the risk of being lost in this forest.

It has a particularly useful Chapter 2, which provides the readers with necessary mathematical foundation for them to go on. Of course, the theory itself is challenging and we will/should never expect an easy-to-read mathematics book. The transformation from classical approach to the modern one is exhibited clearly by this great Russian mathematician. You will find almost everything in here, even some critical part that touches on stochastic differential equations, that are very useful for applied fields of sciences such as mathematical finance.

Index of keywords is also very useful and in details. We should also notice that the book is not too thick compared to other multi-volume textbooks. This is a real advantage if you have to carry it along while working or when reading for leisure.

However, be careful with some examples and solutions. I found at least one problem in which Prof. Shiryaev provided wrong solution, e.g. problem on girl vs boy child on page 25 of 2nd Edition. The final result is correct, but the evolution shows a wrong method.

Despite this minor thing, a matter of Buyer Beware, I find it a really great book that has accompanied me for over 7 years now. It is worth every penny. Thus do not waste your money on others before trying this. You will agree with me at the end. The book is a piece of art! ... Read more

Product Description
This introduction to Probability Theory can be used, at the beginning graduate level, for a one-semester course on Probability Theory or for self-direction without benefit of a formal course; the measure theory needed is developed in the text. It will also be useful for students and teachers in related areas such as Finance Theory (Economics), Electrical Engineering, and Operations Research. The text covers the essentials in a directed and lean way with 28 short chapters. Assuming of readers only an undergraduate background in mathematics, it brings them from a starting knowledge of the subject to a knowledge of the basics of Martingale Theory. After learning Probability Theory from this text, the interested student will be ready to continue with the study of more advanced topics, such as Brownian Motion and Ito Calculus, or Statistical Inference."he authors provide the shortest path through the twenty-eight chapter headings. The topis are treated in a mathematically and pedagogically digestible way. The writing is concise and crisp: the average chapter length is about eight pages... Numerous exercises add to the value of the text as a teaching tool. In conclusion, this is an excellent text for the intended audience."

--Short Book Reviews, Vol. 21, No. 2, 2001 ... Read more

Customer Reviews (3)

Excellent graduate introcuction
As far as beginning graduate-level books on probability are concerned this is definitely one of the best. This looks like a set of lectures turned into a book.
The competition in my mind would be
First Look at Rigorous Probability Theory (more compact, perhaps a little dense)
Probability & Measure Theory, Second Edition (covers more ground and is very clear)
A Course in Probability Theory, Revised Edition, Second Edition(very detailed explanations, but you should probably have followed a course on measure theory)

Please dont dive into probability at this level, your intuition might not be ready for it.
To do that I recommend
An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1 (Volume 1) (if you have the time)
There is also Basic Probability Theory (Dover Books on Mathematics) which is an excellent introduction stopping short of measure theory.

All background needed for Ito calculus is here
This is an excellent and timely textbook on probability and martingale theory.There is an increasing need of thorough but concise treatise of probability theory for researchers and graduate students in Engineering, Economics, Statistics and Mathematical Biology. Very few textbook fill this need.Jacod and Protter succeeded in bringing together essential concepts and theorems in probability/martingale theory in aclear and lucid style and the book is completely self-contained: all necessary machinery from measure theory are explained and proved while providing a flavor of probabilistic way of thinking.Unlike Williams' "Probability with Martingales", all mathematical details are covered in the body of text.They present conditional expectation through Hilbert space approach and Radon-Nikodym theorem is proved at the end of the book using martingales.This is an indoctrinated way of showing how martingales are applied in other field of mathematics.Each chapter starts with pedagogical explanation of concept and summary of results.This helps reader grasp concepts and develop intuition.The topics, examples and exercises are carefully chosen and well organized. I found several but minor typos and discrepancy in the notation during the last five chapters.Yes, elegant proof is given for each theorem on martingales but rephrasing them may help make it clear where in the proof previous results are used and applied.Also, it would be a great idea to include introductory texts on stochastic calculus in the reference for the beginning students.Despite these minor suggestions, I recommend the book with enthusiasm.After reading this book, one can take their way immediately to stochastic calculus: Brownian motion and Ito calculus and their applications.

All backgound needed for Ito calculus is here!
This is an excellent and timely textbook on probability and martingale theory.There is an increasing need of thorough but concise treatise of probability theory for researchers and graduate students in Engineering, Economics, Statistics and Mathematical Biology. Very few textbook fill this need.Jacod and Protter succeeded in bringing together essential concepts and theorems in probability/martingale theory in aclear and lucid style and the book is completely self-contained: all necessary machinery from measure theory are explained and proved while providing a flavor of probabilistic way of thinking.Unlike Williams' "Probability with Martingales", all mathematical details are covered in the body of text.They present conditional expectation through Hilbert space approach and Radon-Nikodym theorem is proved at the end of the book using martingales.This is an indoctrinated way of showing how martingales are applied in other field of mathematics.Each chapter starts with pedagogical explanation of concept and summary of results.This helps reader grasp concepts and develop intuition.The topics, examples and exercises are carefully chosen and well organized. I found several but minor typos and discrepancy in the notation during the last five chapters.Yes, elegant proof is given for each theorem on martingales but rephrasing them may help make it clear where in the proof previously results are used and applied.Also, it would be a great idea to include introductory texts on stochastic calculus for the beginning students.Despite these minor suggestions, I recommend the book with enthusiasm.After reading this book, one can take their way immediately to stochastic calculus: Brownian motion and Ito calculus. ... Read more

Product Description
In this fully revised second edition of Understanding Probability, the reader can learn about the world of probability in an informal way. The author demystifies the law of large numbers, betting systems, random walks, the bootstrap, rare events, the central limit theorem, the Bayesian approach and more. This second edition has wider coverage, more explanations and examples and exercises, and a new chapter introducing Markov chains, making it a great choice for a first probability course. But its easy-going style makes it just as valuable if you want to learn about the subject on your own, and high school algebra is really all the mathematical background you need. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (9)

for math majors
The back of the book says "high school algebra is really all the mathematical background you need" and "for students undertaking a first course in probability".But I disagree, the math is tough for a reader like me who has only taken 1st year university math (I graduated with a finance degree).Another reviewer comments are more accurate: "not presented at a level that the general reader can understand" and "This book is an excellent choice for advanced courses in probability for math majors who have completed the calculus sequence".I don't mean to disparage the book - especially because I couldn't get through it, but just letting potential buyers know what to expect, so the book can hit it's correct target audience.

An excellent introduction to probability for the mathematically advanced
While the examples illustrating probability are taken from everyday life, they are not presented at a level that the general reader can understand. The later examples of continuous distributions involve complex integrals, including multiple integrations. While some short computer programs are included, surprisingly, they are written in Pascal, a programming language that is almost obsolete in education.
If you can handle the advanced mathematics, then you will find this an excellent book for the study of basic probability events. As the historical record affirms, there is no area of mathematics that is more capable of stumping even advanced mathematicians than probability. In many cases, the "intuitive" answer is wrong because the intuition is improperly applied. The best example of this is "The Monty Hall problem." It is modeled over the "big deal of the day" in the television game show "Let's Make a Deal." There are three doors, one of which contains a very valuable prize and the other two duds. You are given the opportunity to pick one and after your selection, the contents of one of the others, which is one of the duds, is revealed. Then, you are given the opportunity to alter your selection to the other one. Tijms works through this problem several different ways, conclusively demonstrating that the odds are in fact better if you alter your selection.
A large number of other examples of probabilistic reasoning, both correct and fallacious, are given and worked out in complete detail. Problems are included in the chapters and solutions to the odd-numbered ones are included in an appendix. This book is an excellent choice for advanced courses in probability for math majors who have completed the calculus sequence.

Just what I needed
This was a textbook for a class.It is just what I needed at almost half the price.

Great intro to probability
I am a physician who uses probabilty and statistics in research and I am always interested in finding textbooks that are such effective teaching instruments that they are suitable for self-study.Unfortunately work has prevented me from finishing this book for now and so my comments are based on an incomplete reading of the book but my initial impression was positive and I thought it was worth sharing. But it is one of the best books I have found. It is a nice balance between mathematical rigor and expository writing and I very much appreciated historical anecdotes that come in handy when one wonders if one has what it takes to finish the book and master the subject-specifically how Leibniz had difficulty calculating the probability of rolling a certain number with dice. I was particularky impressed because I had a very negative impression of some of the "classics" that will remain unnamed that are undoubtedly super colelctions of information and concepts but rather poor vehicals of instruction. I have to admit that I definitely prefer a more expository style in which the author is really speaking to you. The "high-density" books are not for me. So I very much appreciated professor Tijms expository approach.

A reader from Mexico City
Highly recommended.
I could not put this book down. Working through the colorful problems in this book is a great way to learn and apply basic probability principles. I've have never seen a probability book with such good examples. ... Read more

Product Description
This is an OCR edition without illustrations or index. It may have numerous typos or missing text. However, purchasers can download a free scanned copy of the original rare book from GeneralBooksClub.com. You can also preview excerpts from the book there. Purchasers are also entitled to a free trial membership in the General Books Club where they can select from more than a million books without charge. Original Published by: Macmillan and co., limited in 1921 in 492 pages; Subjects: Probabilities; Business & Economics / Economics / Theory; Mathematics / Algebra / General; Mathematics / Probability & Statistics / General; Philosophy / Logic; ... Read more

Customer Reviews (10)

A Treatise on Probability by General Books LLC is OCR nonsense
This particular edition (A Treatise on Probability by General Books LLC) of the book seems a ripoff to me and I strongly recommend against buying it.

The small print on the front pages states that the book was created with OCR, to "keep the cost as low as possible".

This was not clear from the Amazon web.

This is so bad that I will wait a few years before I buy anything more at Amazon.

Mathematical formulas that are undecipherable ... supposing these typographical trainwrecks were formulas in the first place

To name a few issues, apart from a stream of spelling errors:
- a table of contents with no titles, just "section 1", "section 2" and so on
- random sections: section 17 starts with "chapter XXI", section 30 with "chapter XXXIII", section 31 appears to be the index
- sections starting in midsentence and, conversely, "chapter XXIX" appearing unceremoniously halfway down a page
- an index which refers to seemingly random pagenumbers
- mathematical formulas that are undecipherable ... supposing these typographical trainwrecks were formulas in the first place
- footnotes strewn through the text, again supposing that the many lines starting with digits are indeed footnotes.
- no layout whatsoever

In short: Do not buy this.

This particular edition is unusable
This particular edition (A Treatise on Probability by General Books LLC) of the book seems a ripoff to me and I strongly recommend against buying it.
The small print on the front pages states that the book was created with OCR, to "keep the cost as low as possible".
That's all very well, but readability was kept as low as possible too.

To name a few issues, apart from a stream of spelling errors:
- a table of contents with no titles, just "section 1", "section 2" and so on
- random sections: section 17 starts with "chapter XXI", section 30 with "chapter XXXIII", section 31 appears to be the index
- sections starting in midsentence and, conversely, "chapter XXIX" appearing unceremoniously halfway down a page
- an index which refers to seemingly random pagenumbers
- mathematical formulas that are undecipherable ... supposing these typographical trainwrecks were formulas in the first place
- footnotes strewn through the text, again supposing that the many lines starting with digits are indeed footnotes.
- no layout whatsoever

Please read similar comments on:
[...]

The offer to download the original scan of the book from their website [...] seems meaningless too,
I couldn't find the book by author, title, barcode or ISBN.

Interesting and scary
So you think you know how and why the markets work the way they do.... Try reading this!

Not Famous, for a reason
Keynes is famous for economics.This book is a
fairly well written introduction to probability,
but there are many other books which I would
recommend above it.

If you want to read Keynes, you might start
with "Essays in Persuasion".

Very extravagant
In fact the copy I received contains only blank pages, without any text, absolutly none. I don't know if it is odd. May be it is a singular copy. In any case, I am intending to keep the copy I received,and if there is a normal text available, I certainly would like to order one.
R.A.Naique, Lisbon (PORTUGAL) ... Read more

Product Description
Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, and other key concepts and methods essential to a thorough understanding of probability. Designed for use by math or statistics departments offering a first course in probability. 360 illustrative problems with answers for half. Only high school algebra needed. Chapter bibliographies.
... Read more

Customer Reviews (3)

Excellent introduction to discrete probability
Although it does not cover continuous probability, this book will give you basic, important concepts and material needed for a college level undergraduate course in Mathematical Statistics.Be aware that even though there is no use of differential and integral calculus, the book still requires you to be able to learn the algebra of sets on your own if you do not already know it, to be good at algebraic manipulation, and to have a decent level of mathematical sophistication.Problems range from easy to extremely hard, but do not let it discourage you if you are unable to solve the difficult problems.

For a good start in Probability
Compared to the average book on this subject on the market, this book is a gem. When you add its very low price (as I write this, a used copy is under $2 + shipping on Amazon.com), you get two gems. You count how many gems you get when you add these points:

1) It presents the version of the probability theory that is firmly based on sample spaces. Consequently, and very importantly, a random variable is defined as a real-valued function on a sample space, which makes a lot more sense than the typical definition you will find in the terribly overpriced, overcolored and overly dumbed down modern college-statistics books, in which a random variable is defined as a "variable (a concept that is not defined in these books, btw) that takes chance values". Actually, Goldberg tells you that the name "random variable" is singularly inappropriate for something that is not random, nor a variable. You will also learn the Bayes' theorem, which is shamefully placed in footnotes or even completely omitted by many all-shiny new books.

2) This guy can teach and so can his book! It will take you from step one to step one hundred without ever giving you the impression that he's just skipped a few steps in a hurry to get to the next topic. It does not jump ahead, and it does not lag either: you won't find tons of examples and exercises that add nothing to the previous ones but make the book thicker and more expensive.

Each example and exercise has a purpose, either to introduce a new concept or a particular case or to make you use another theorem to solve it. There are no hard or tricky exercises here, you only need to have read the section carefully. Almost every theorem or definition is introduced or followed by one example or two. Goldberg tells you all and only what you need to know to fully understand what you are doing; no more, and no less.

I found only one bug: a few concepts are introduced by even-numbered exercises at the end of the sections. Given that the book provides answers only to odd-numbered exercises, you cannot verify your understanding of those concepts. Fortunately, there are only one or two such cases in each section, and those concepts are not needed later in the book.

Also, don't forget that this is a book on discrete probability only. There is no place for the normal distribution, nor for any topics in statistics, apart from a formal introduction to populations and samples with replacement, both of which can be defined using random variables and their distributions -- did you know that?

A useful little book
Okay it's dover so that means two things: 1) it's cheap (sometimes this equates to value, sometimes not) and 2) It's no the most current book in the world. Nevertheless, this is still a quite useful book.

It is, as the name suggests, an intoduction to probability.
Topic included are:

1) Set theory- examples of sets and set notation, subsets, operatons on sets, algebra of sets, cartesian product sets (about 40 pages)
2) Probability in finite sample spaces- samples spaces, events, probability of an event, some probability theorems, conditional probability, bayes' formula. independent events, independence of several events, independent trials, a probability model in genetics (about 85 pages)

3) Sophisticated counting- counting techniques, binomial coefficients (about 25 pages)

4) Random variables: Random variables and probability functions, mean of a random variable, variance and standard deviation, joint probability functions, means and variance of sums of random variables, covariance and correlation (about 100 pages)

5) Binomial Distribution and some applications: bernoulli trials and binomial distribution, testing a hypothesis, an examples of decision making under uncertainty (about 40 pages)

As you can clearly see, there is no normal distribution. Also the book has answers (not worked) to only odd numbered questions. The problems are quite tricky at times and do require some thought. The author's style is quite readable, showing the lessening of stiltedness that seem to afflict books of it's era. Mathematical formalism isn't at the forefront of what the author is trying to do: he's trying to teach you how it works, rather than how to prove it from first principles. This means it isn't a bad book for the beginner. No calculus is required. And obviously the meat of the book is on the treatment of random variables and typical descriptive measures: mean, variance, standard deviation, covariance, correlation.

I have to admit that I enjoyed working through the book as it isn't enormous or burdened with irrelevant crapola. While I would have liked further treatement of the normal distribution, what this book gives is quite excellent for the price and size of the book. Paul Pfeiffer's 'concepts of probability Theory'(isbn 0486636771) makes a good continuation to this book if you are learning at your own pace, rather than inside a structured course.

All in all, a good little book that offers good value and doesn't promise the world but fail to devliver: it promises an introduction and that's what you get: a basic introduction (though it requires some effort, so it perhaps isn't as introductory as it might seems- depends on your mathematical ability). If you're working with the normal distrubution or wanting a 'cookbook' on probability, however, look elsewhere. This book teaches more through exposition then by example. ... Read more

Product Description
Man's daily life is full of decisional situations. Whether we have math skills or not, we frequently estimate and compare probabilities, sometimes without realizing it, especially when making decisions. But probabilities are not just simple numbers attached objectively or subjectively to events, as they perhaps look, and their calculus and usage is highly predisposed to qualitative or quantitative errors in the absence of proper knowledge.That is why a book explaining the probability concept and its interpretations and applications for non-mathematicians is a necessity.This is an enlightening journey through the world of probability theory. Its multiple goals are to help the reader understand what probability really means, to teach the reader how to rigorously perform and apply the probability calculus, even without a solid mathematical background, and to stimulate the reader to go deeper into the notions involved.In the first part, the author tries to build a clear image of the probability concept by reconstructing its mathematical definition step by step through its constituent notions. It starts with a general presentation of the conceptual ensemble word - definition - notion - model any theory is based on when trying to reproduce reality. Then, the probability notion is defined and explained starting from the classical definition to the definition for the countable case; then probability is presented as a limit and as a measure.This book presents not only the mathematical concept of probability, but also its philosophical aspects, the relativity of probability and its applications and even the psychology of probability.All explanations are made in a comprehensible manner and are supported with suggestive examples from nature and daily life and even with challenging math paradoxes.After these points are laid out the math chapter follows. It contains all the notions and principal theoretical results that ground Probability Theory, starting with fundamental notions like Sets, Functions, Boole algebras, and Sequences, and continuing with Measure Theory Basics - Tribes, Borel sets, Measurable spaces, and Measure, ending with Field of events, Sigma-fields, Probability, Conditional probability, Discrete random variables, Classical probability distributions, and Convergence. And, of course, it includes all important theorems and results dealing with them. A special section is dedicated to Combinatorics and combinatorial calculus.Readers with no minimal mathematical background may choose to skip this chapter because the teaching material is structured for developing probability calculus skills based on algorithmic procedures. This is the subject of the chapter titled Beginners' Calculus Guide, in which the reader is taught to apply the properties of probability and to perform calculations in practical applications.The skills acquired here can be practiced on the more than 200 solved and unsolved problems and exercises in the book.Everyone should find something of interest here: philosophers and mathematicians may focus on the sections on philosophical matters of the probability model and decisional matters, students and non-mathematicians can find solid A to Z teaching material about Probability Theory and the practical person can find all the tools needed to apply and perform probability calculus without a teacher. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (5)

Horribly written
I've never given a one-star review in my life, but this book is so awfully and unclearly written that you can't quite imagine how it could get past the most basic editing phase.The title suggests a basic guide to probability for games of chance, etc., and yet the author goes on for pages and pages in the most over-written, obtuse and contorted style to address "philosophical" and "psychological" issues of probability that could have been explained clearly in about 2 pages.Useless.

Big problems in Roulette City
The math appears correct dispite many typos which become magnified because the english usage is awkward.HOWEVER, the section concerning roulette is completely off base.The author uses an incorrect payout of 40 to 1 for single number wagers rather than the correct payoff of 35 to 1.This is an unforgiveable error and yields totally incorrect results.This casts a pall over the other gaming analyses which I haven't the patience to evaluate.Someone must correct this (and possibly others) for the book to be useful; otherwise it must be discarded.

Average introduction to probability
This book covers the basics in probability including boole algebras, measure spaces, law of large numbers, combinatorics, discrete random variables and bayesian probability.

The first 118 pages is basically a short story on probability summarizing the next 200 pages. The problem is the author uses an unnecessarily complex writing style enough to frustrate any individual whose first language is english what to say of others. Regardless, after a few pages you get used to it.

The mathematical chapter is really not mathematical at all. It is simply a statement of definitions, properties and theorems with no justification ( proofs ) and only a spattering of justification.

The prize however, is the problems and algorithms with plenty of solved examples. This has it's merits but at some points the author solves problems by a circuitous and often confusing route. There are other much simpler ways to solve these problems.

Regardless, I relished the fact that the author gives a general problem solving method rather than present formulas to memorize. This enhances intuition and understanding.

Finally a readable math book!
It covers fundamentals well, easy to read, good variety of problems, nice examples, philosophic sections are interesting. It has everything. I've never seen a probability book with such good examples and algorithms of solving. Most books on probability give you all of the equations, but they don't really tell you how to apply them to real situations. It is the book on probability that I have been looking for. Great.

Excellent primer and not only
This is the book to start with and to finish with. In this big book (in size and amount of information) you will find all you need to know about both theoretical and applied probability. The author made the text comprehensible for all categories of readers: laymen, students and advanced. And the result is a masterly exposition with amazing clarity. I read a lot of textbooks on this subject, but I found no one to touch on all basic issues in such a teachable manner. Each subject has a short, concise and to the point exposition. Great job and a very useful product. ... Read more

Product Description
Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.
... Read more

Customer Reviews (7)

An introduction, not a deep book
This book is very good for those who have little knowledge in Probability but do manage some basic math concepts: polinomials, factorials, limits, etc.I bought it because I was looking for a mathematical course in Probability but this book is not for that, it is very simple.It is not a "definition-theorem-proof" book.

More Like Introduction to Boredom
Introduction to Probability by John E. Freund feels like an ordinary text that plays out the same just like the others I read in college. There is an attempt to explain some of the topics offered: possibilities, probabilities, combinations, permutations, conditional probabilities, Venn diagrams, Bayes' rule, and probability distributions. In short, I didn't see anything new. Also, Freund doesn't go as deep as if he wanted to, but that's understandable since it's only an introduction book. Based on the ample supply of concrete examples, I find the explanations to be fair but lacking. The end-of-the-section questions are many, and as usual, devoid of worked-out solutions in the end (you only get odd numerical answers). In my experience, the study of probability was one of the toughest undertakings that I was able to spend a lot of time over the years, getting the knack of solving questions in different forms while employing the right technique. So, I can't honestly say that my ability would be improved if I started with Introduction to Probability by John E. Freund, so I suggest you to look elsewhere. On the other hand, I would recommend this book as a suitable college textbook provided that the students will get a guided tour along with helpings of how to solve the (not that hard, really) problems offered. All in all, Introduction to Probability is not worth buying if you know the subject well enough and is not worth buying if you know squat about it.

Will work well as a text if you are teaching probability or for self-study
The fundamentals of probability are topics that most students pick up fairly well and also seem to enjoy. It is also a skill that is growing more essential for effective functioning in modern society. This book is designed to teach those basics and the level and quality of exposition are what they should be to get the job done. The chapters are:

*) Possibilities
*) Probabilities
*) Expectations
*) Events
*) Rules of probability
*) Conditional probabilities
*) Probability distributions
*) The law of large numbers

A large set of detailed problems appears at the end of each section and short solutions to the odd-numbered ones are included in an appendix.
If you are teaching a short course in probability or want to learn it on your own, this book will work well for you.

Provides the reader with an understanding of basic probability.
Freund's text, which is based on a course that the author taught to university students fulfilling their general education requirement, is a clearly written and carefully constructed introduction to basic discrete probability.Each topic is placed in context and is illustrated by copious examples that demonstrate both the relevance and utility of probability.The exercises at the end of each section, which are generally straightforward applications of the material covered in that section, reinforce the reader's understanding of the material.Answers are provided to the odd-numbered exercises, making the text suitable for self-study.This text is a good entry point to the study of probability.However, the scope of the text is limited.The emphasis is on how to solve problems rather than the underlying theory.Freund succeeds in making the text as widely accessible as possible, albeit at the expense of a deeper understanding of the material.

The text begins with a chapter on enumerative combinatorics that covers tree diagrams, the Multiplication Principle, factorials, permutations, combinations, and indistinguishable objects.Freund then introduces the classical, frequentist, and subjective (Bayesian) approaches to probability.He contrasts the different approaches, demonstrates how each is applied, discusses their limitations, and shows that they lead to equivalent results.In the following chapter on the mathematical expectation of an event, Freund illustrates how probability is used in making business decisions.Next, Freund puts probability on a formal footing, discussing events, sample spaces, compound events, mutually exclusive events, and probability measures.Freund then discusses conditional probability and independent events, demonstrating how to calculate the posterior probability that a known effect had a particular cause.The remainder of the text is devoted to probability functions.The binomial, hypergeometric, geometric, and multinomial distributions are introduced, as are the concepts of mean, variance, and standard of deviation.The text culminates with Chebyshev's Theorem about the probability that a random variable will assume a value within k standard deviations of the mean and the Law of Large Numbers, which states that for a binomial distribution that if the number of trials is sufficiently large, then the number of successes will be very close to the probability of success for an individual trial.

The text is carefully sequenced so that the foundation for each new topic is covered in the preceding sections.Preceding examples are often referenced in the discussion; exercises often refer to the preceding examples, exercises, or the results of those exercises.Consequently, while the text does an effective job of teaching you the material, it does not work well as a reference.

Freund includes tables of factorials, binomial coefficients, binomial probabilities, and square roots.The presence of the last table is indicative of how old the book is.It was written before hand-held calculators came into widespread use.Reading the examples in the text will give you some idea of how much society has changed since the book was first published in 1973.

Working through Samuel Goldberg's text Probability: An Introduction after, or instead of, reading Freund's text would enable you to delve deeper into the subject.Goldberg places a greater emphasis on probability theory and proof, provides more robust examples, and challenges the reader to solve non-routine exercises.

Basic introduction
Nice examples, a bit basic for my needs.

The target audience of this book would be 1st year undergradate students. Mathematically very simple, but everything is explained well. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (11)

Outstanding introduction to the subject
This is a fantastic book. It is a pleasure to read and learn from. I know is an expensive text but it is worth its weight in gold, even if used. I have quite a few books on probability and, had I known about this one before, I would have never bothered looking at the others. This is the type of text to bring along if you were to be dropped onto an island in the middle of the Pacific.

Absolutely a first-class textbook on elementary probability!
This book is an excellent choice for anyone who is interested in learning the elementary probability theory(i.e. calculus-based probability rather than measure theoretic probability). The book assumes the readers have no prior exposure to this subject. However, the readers are expected to have a working knowledge of calculus. While there are many textbooks of the same nature, this book stands out by its clarity, completeness and elegance. The authors present the material in an extremely clear way that any serious reader is able to follow from the beginning to the end. It is absolutely a first-class textbook! A must for anyone interested in elementary probability.

One of the best out there for undergrad level
I picked up this book for free in a library give away and didn't realize my good fortune until I read the first chapter.My undergrad probability class used Sheldon Ross's Intro To Probability Models book, which certainly contains interesting examples but lacks the intuitive explanation and rigorous (enough for an undergraduate at least) derivations of this book.Chapter 2 alone provided a better treatment of counting and combinatorics than any book I've seen.Most of the exercises have solutions in the back, which are very convenient for self-study, and the exercises themselves range from straightforward to slightly tricky, although all are very manageable.I am looking forward to tackling HPS's Stochastic Processes book next.

I became an expert in probability/statistics because of this book
This was the book I used in my undergrad studies in probability & statistics. By truly studying every page of this easy to follow & concise book I was able to become something of an expert in probability & statistics -- at least that is what I am known as in my engineering profession.

I can truly attest to the fact that this book almost single handily provided me with this expertise. I was truly able to learn about probability & statistics because of this book.

I very highly recommend this book to anyone who truly wants to learn andUNDERSTAND probability & statistics.

I give this book the highest star ratings times three. To me it's by far the gold medal of probability & statistics books. Do whatever you can to buy a copy -- and study it thoroughly. By the end of the book you will truly be another expert and truly understand probability & statistics.

- Mike Peralta

Feel free to contact me if you wish at:peralta_mike@hotmail.com

A Straightforward Introduction
The authors introduce the most elementary ideas of probability theory in quite a few pages. They include the right amount of examples to clarify the concepts without making the exposition too tedious. In addition, the text has plenty of problems with their respective solutions. To make the story short: if you want to learn elementary probability as fast as possible without loosing the essentials, get this book. ... Read more

Product Description
text is designed for an introductory probability course at the university level for sophomores, juniors, and seniors in mathematics, physical and social sciences, engineering, and computer science. It presents a thorough treatment of ideas and techniques necessary for a firm understanding of the subject. The text is also recommended for use in discrete probability courses. The material is organized so that the discrete and continuous probability discussions are presented in a separate, but parallel, manner. This organization does not emphasize an overly rigorous or formal view of probabililty and therefore offers some strong pedagogical value. Hence, the discrete discussions can sometimes serve to motivate the more abstract continuous probability discussions. Features: Key ideas are developed in a somewhat leisurely style, providing a variety of interesting applications to probability and showing some nonintuitive ideas. Over 600 exercises provide the opportunity for practicing skills and developing a sound understanding of ideas. Numerous historical comments deal with the development of discrete probability. The text includes many computer programs that illustrate the algorithms or the methods of computation for important problems. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (5)

Great Probability Textbook
I used this book when I taught Probability last Summer and I thought the book was excellent. The book is full of illuminating examples and the exercises are really good to enhance the material.

My favorite chapter is Chapter 9, were they teach the Central Limit Theorem.

Another great chapter is 11 where the book deals with Markov Chains. Markov chains are great for applications in the real world and the chapter is written very clearly.

The book covers Discrete Probability, Continuous Probability, Permutations, Combinations, Conditional Probability, Expectation, Variance, Poisson Distribution, Normal Distribution, Law of Large Numbers, Central Limit Theorem, Markov Chains and Random Walks. It covers everything one needs for an introductory probability course.

Brilliant book on probability theory
This is a wonderful book on probability theory.
I first used it at Dartmouth in an intro course 12 years ago, and I still find it illuminating.

The level is at once highly rigorous and extremely readable & engaging. I believe anyone can read this book (a smattering of first-year calculus would help to understand the sections on continuous probability distributions).

The paradoxes in Chp 4 are memorable, as is the medical question on false positives / false negatives, which most med students failed.

With a chapter on random walks, this is also the perfect introduction for anyone in physics / finance seeking to study stochastic calculus.

Truly, there's nothing that is
(a) more clearly written
(b) more enjoyable to read (if you like math)

Available under the GNU General Public License
This book is freely available under the GNU General Public License, in PDF format.The GPL allows free usage to anyone, and free modification and redistribution with the restriction that your changes have to remain free under the same license.This is the same license Linux and much open source software is released under.

Try a web search for the authors/title.For a course, you might want to purchase the physical copy anyway.

I am starting on the book now, so ignore my rating of the book itself - I had to include a rating to post.

good
covers fundamentals well, easy to read, good variety of problems, historic sections are interesting

Finally a readable math book!
A good variety of problems, easy, medium, and hard.I was able to read through the chapters and understand the mathematics.The computer programs truly complement the sections. ... Read more

Product Description
The Probability Broach tells the story of Win Bear, a detective on the trail of a murder. But the trail leads him to another North America, where things are different. In a world of zeppelins and no federal government, Win solves his mystery, and things are never the same for him again. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (52)

A classic
A willd story.. Read it when it came out, bought it again to reread..... Enjoying it again!,,

Buy it now!
No confusion in the tale. It's a alternate tale coming true before my life in pelosi/obama-land now and I truly wish I could of been capable to come into the other side of this looking glass!

If you love guns more than reading, you will love this book!
There are two kinds of people in the world: those who believe that the world would be orders of magnitude better if every "responsible child" always carried a firearm, and those other people. The author, according to his web site, is one of the former. If you are too, you will absolutely love this large collection of diverse and improbable situations featuring hot and steamy gun love. The Libertarian philosophy that might have been a bit more thought provoking as the central focus of the plot was overshadowed by the singular focus on guns. Again, if you love guns, you'll be delighted.

Politics and choice of fetishes aside, as a science fiction book, it seemed to lack a lot of elements that are hallmarks of actual good novels. The characters were very cliche and the main character really went out of his way to be a standard cliche detective. The villain was, you know, villainous, right down to his henchmen with German accents. Where the characters were not predictable, they became a bit nonsensical, like the monkeys who inexplicably have taken a fancy to wearing human clothes and smoking cigarettes. Have no fear, however, the monkeys love guns too! Hot monkey gun love! Actually, now that I think about it, the dolphins in the book did not carry guns! Well, there you go; it's not as thoroughly gun oriented as I thought.

The author also seems to be a thesaurus power user. I kept getting the feeling that he just looked up a bunch of ill-fitting synonyms in an attempt to make his descriptions more bountiful, salutary, advantageous, and discriminating. In a relatively appropriate example, the dolphin shows us how smart it is by describing humans as "desiccated" instead of "dry" or even "dehydrated" (a questionable choice given that humans are 60% water, dolphins not much more and with impermeable skin, etc... but I got the point that the dolphin was smarter than I). At one point (p247) just prior to the obligatory climatic gun duel, the referee explains the rules (let's not dwell on what committee must have formulated them) and checks to see if everyone understood them by asking, "Clear?" What follows is a very bizarre single unquoted one-word paragraph that doesn't seem to belong to the dialog. It simply says "Dianetically." Huh? Did the author get confused with a different cult? Really, that's just weird.

There was a lot of pseudo intellectualizing that kind of detracted from the more interesting gun spectacles. It is sometimes presented in an almost convincing authoritative style which the skeptical reader will grow weary of. On page 163, for example, while arguing that the rights of two people do not take precedence over the rights of a single person, a rhetorical question is posed "Are two [people] wiser [than one person]?" The correct answer you were supposed to imagine that goes with the other rhetorical questions is no, but obviously two people are generally wiser than one. Logical mistakes like that just put me off of the whole message.

If you don't mind a weak alternate universe utopia story, you will be rewarded with sumptuous descriptive discourses featuring fulsome firearms.

A fun read
This book is the first in a series by L Neil Smith about an alternate history in which America and the world took a different path after the american revolution. Toward a bright future of liberty, peace, and prosperity instead of the dark collectivist malfeasance of the real world.
Anyone who likes alternate history stories will like this book and those that follow. Great stories of a bright hopeful world with plenty of fun, excitement, and humor thrown in.

A Twist On History
This is the book to read for fans of The Bill of Rights.

It examines a society that's built on personal responsibility, and accountability.

Warning: It'll make you think! It'll make authoritatians/politicians/tax collectors angry. Which should be enough to make any rational being want to read it.

I read it in the early eighties. I still recommend it today! ... Read more

Product Description

Customer Reviews (1)

Excellent!
Excellent book. Best in the subject. Very comprehensive and covers all topics very well and easy to comprehend. ... Read more

Product Description

Updated to conform to Mathematica^® 7.0, Introduction to Probability with Mathematica^®, Second Edition continues to show students how to easily create simulations from templates and solve problems using Mathematica. It provides a real understanding of probabilistic modeling and the analysis of data and encourages the application of these ideas to practical problems. The accompanying CD-ROM offers instructors the option of creating class notes, demonstrations, and projects.

New to the Second Edition

• Expanded section on Markov chains that includes a study of absorbing chains
• New sections on order statistics, transformations of multivariate normal random variables, and Brownian motion
• More example data of the normal distribution
• More attention on conditional expectation, which has become significant in financial mathematics
• Additional problems from Actuarial Exam P
• New appendix that gives a basic introduction to Mathematica
• New examples, exercises, and data sets, particularly on the bivariate normal distribution
• New visualization and animation features from Mathematica 7.0
• Updated Mathematica notebooks on the CD-ROM

After covering topics in discrete probability, the text presents a fairly standard treatment of common discrete distributions. It then transitions to continuous probability and continuous distributions, including normal, bivariate normal, gamma, and chi-square distributions. The author goes on to examine the history of probability, the laws of large numbers, and the central limit theorem. The final chapter explores stochastic processes and applications, ideal for students in operations research and finance.

Product Description
This book retains the pedagogical strengths that made the previous editions so popular, including the use of real data in the examples. Topics include nonparametric statistics, a section on p-values in hypothetical testing, coverage of residual analysis, and more material on quality control and experiment design. Provides chapter introductions, including interesting historical information ... Read more

Customer Reviews (4)

Excellent book for review
This book was very helpful for me to review the subject.It is clear and well written with plenty of problems.I would personally prefer more example problems and more work problems with solutions, but it is getting harder and harder to find that these days.

very helpful
I'm an engineer, I've been out of school for 3 years and I bought this book for my first grad class.The book itself is like most textbooks... reading it will put you to sleep.However this book was great for learning the material.My professor is extremely hard to understand and not very helpful in lecture.Basically I taught myself the material from this book and passed with an A.

Still not there yet for engineers
I bought this book for one of my project and read most of its chapters. I feel that this book may be good for student in engineering major but sure not good enough for engineers.

Outstanding Reference Source for Industrial and Quality Mgrs
A must have for the industrial engineer and quality professional.Montgomery and Hines present an excellent piece that is well organized, comprehensive and stocked full of real world examples. A must have for your reference books and library. ... Read more

Product Description
Measure theory and integration are presented to undergraduates from the perspective of probability theory. In fact, discrete probability theory is taught at many institutions as a freshman course. The early chapters, going under the rubric of the law of large numbers, show why measure theory is needed for the formulation of problems in probability, and explain why one would have been forced to invent Lebesgue theory (had it not already existed) to contend with the paradoxes of large numbers. The measure-theoretic approach then leads to interesting applications and a range of topics that include the construction of the Lebesgue measure on Rn (metric space approach), the Borel-Cantelli lemmas, straight measure theory (the Lebesgue integral). In this concise text, a number of applications to probability are packed into the exercises. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (2)

Graduate Measure Theory w.r.t. Probability
When I first looked through this book, I thought it was horrible. After looking through it more and more, I got to like it more. It's not a bad book after all. The book says that it's for undergraduates, but I think it's for graduate students. This is the book used most often at URI for graduate measure theory and integration. I think many of the problems in the book are very challenging considering that the explanations in the book are not very detailed. I would rate this book 3 and 1/2 stars if possible, but I gave it four. It's not the best, but it's an alright book.

Great Introduction to Measure Theory
This book is great. As an undergraduate I did an independent study using this book and learned lots of stuff. The exposition is nicely done and allows for a clear presentation of some very complicated ideas. There are also lots of great examples and applications, which can be really helpful when dealing with something as abstract as measure theory. The exercises mix well with the exposition and contain interesting results. You can learn a great deal from this book without needing to go to lectures, but it does help a lot to be able to ask somebody questions as the material gets quite tricky sometimes.

One thing that could have been done better was Polya's Theorem on random walks. The book didn't get into what happens in dimensions above 2.

It has a great intoduction to Fourier transforms which shows some interesting connections between Fourier series and Probability.

This is a great book if you have some time between undergraduate real analysis and graduate real analysis. Also, you can learn this book right after an undergraduate real analysis course so that you can impress your friends by being the first kid on the block to know about cool stuff like "The Discrete Dirchlet Problem" or how to prove the Weierstrauss Approximation Theorem by using the Law of Large Numbers. It's also cheap. ... Read more

Product Description
The book represents the most thorough introduction to the Theory of Probability, a branch of mathematics. The presentation is scholarly precise, but in an easy-to-understand language. The author, Ion Saliu, made important discoveries in probability theory. Also, he has written original software that makes the mathematical calculations a lot easier and faster. There is an emphasis on real-life applications of probability theory, including the genetic code and the existence of intelligent life in other places in the Universe. Finally, the book contains the most scientific applications of probability theory to jeux de chance—games of chance—including gambling and lottery.
... Read more

Customer Reviews (3)

Excellent introduction to the theory of gambling
I bought the book because his website was so helpful, I want to support his work. I've paid mathemeticians hundreds of dollars to test my probability theories. Now, thanks to Saliu, I understand the principles and can do the work myself!

Is it an advertisement?
The book isn't really a book but an advertisement. I can't find anything substantial but was keep referring to his website and using his softwares. A lot of his points seem absurd to me and I read contraries before which sounds more rational.I thought it was a book discussing probability of real lives. It turns out to be a book of gamblers. Nay, a book of gambler's fallacies. I don't know if anyone really gamble according to his recommendation although I will never do so.

Best book for those who think seriously ofplaying lotto
I've just finished reading " Probability theory,live!". The thing is that my decision to buy this book comes as a natural consequence of using the software created by the author. For some of you, I think, the sequence will be reversed. Anyway the book serves as an excellent introduction to probability theory, especially with reference to games of chance.

Ion Saliu is one of very few authors who dedicated their time to mathematics of gambling. He practically paves the way for a new approach to playing games of chance. His ideas are very well supported by real life results. It certainly is not a very easy read for those who have not had at least some smattering of what probability theory deals in. However do not give up and go for it as your efforts will be rewarded.

Adam ... Read more

Product Description

Probabilistic concepts play an increasingly important role in mathematics, physics, biology, financial engineering and computer science. They help us to understand magnetism, amorphous media, genetic diversity and the perils of random developments on the financial markets, and they guide us in constructing more efficient algorithms.

This text is a comprehensive course in modern probability theory and its measure-theoretical foundations. Aimed primarily at graduate students and researchers, the book covers a wide variety of topics, many of which are not usually found in introductory textbooks, such as:

• limit theorems for sums of random variables;
• martingales;
• percolation;
• Markov chains and electrical networks;
• construction of stochastic processes;
• Poisson point processes and infinite divisibility;
• large deviation principles and statistical physics;
• Brownian motion; and
• stochastic integral and stochastic differential equations.

The theory is developed rigorously and in a self-contained way, with the chapters on measure theory interlaced with the probabilistic chapters in order to display the power of the abstract concepts in the world of probability theory. In addition, plenty of figures, computer simulations, biographic details of key mathematicians, and a wealth of examples support and enliven the presentation.

Customer Reviews (3)

Amazingly well-done
I taught a course in advanced probability out of the first half of Klenke's _Probability Theory_ during Fall 2009 at Brigham Young University, and I'm just starting to teach the follow-on course out of the second half.I am, therefore, thoroughly familiar with the first half of the book but admittedly only vaguely familiar with the second half.I've decided to go ahead and write a review now based on this incomplete information in order to help faculty who may be selecting a probability textbook now for the coming academic year.

In my opinion, this is an extraordinarily good textbook!I've taught classes out of some great books before (e.g., Rudin's _Real and Complex Analysis_, Jones' _Lebesgue Integration on Euclidean Space_, Abbott's _Understanding Analysis_) but I can't remember ever being as impressed with a textbook as I am with Klenke's.His logical arguments are amazingly precise and clear.Even little things like his choices of notation and fonts seem ideal.I think German is Klenke's native language, but his use of English in this book is not stilted at all.The book is mainly self-contained and, in particular, does measure theory from scratch.It was quite a revelation to me to see how clearly and concisely one could work up to Caratheodory's measure extension theorem.

Judging by the copies that appeared on the shelf of the campus bookstore this semester, Springer has not yet subjected Klenke's book to the print-on-demand treatment, so the printing is still nice and sharp.From the perspective of a mathematician and a book lover, _Probability Theory_ is a work of art, and it's been a genuine privilege to get to use it.

This could be a new Standard Reference for Probability Theory!
For a while I was trying to learn Probability Theory from Patrick Billingsley's textbook, which I believe is a standard in many universities (at least in our university that was the recommended reference). Until I was very lucky to stumble upon a copy of this book, very new release (2008 for the English version) at a book fair. I skimmed through it, looked for an Amazon review (there was only one at that time) and was easily convinced, from first impressions, so I bought the single copy at the book fair.

Now that I have read most of it, I think this book stands a good chance to become THE new, stand-alone, standard reference for probability theory (I would vote for it, if there was a poll). It has many wonderful qualities: very clear presentation - I thought the contents could have been ready-made for use as lecture notes, having a wonderful clarity. Quite comprehensive, many proofs are provided, which is perfect for self-learning, and the author gives sufficient hints whenever proofs are shortened.

I appreciate the sections on more fundamental topics such as measure theory, which to me was something new, and very useful. I like how the "pre-requisite" sections were clearly indicated but not all lumped in the beginning. For example, the review of topology, in anticipation of the section on product measure. Very compact, yet rigorous, treatment of regular conditional densities, the Radon-Nikodym derivative, the martingale theory, optional sampling etc. an introduction to stochastic calculus. Topics from applications also abound, and a couple of nice, anectdotal commentaries here and there.

The whole text strikes me as very "modern" and very very clear. To be honest, this has been my favorite book this past year.

If you are a graduate student who wishes to specialize in Probability, this may be a great starting point, to cover a rigorous study of the fundamentals. It does not cover some of the more advanced topics in detail (such as in Protter, Stochastic Integration). If on the other hand you are in a "hurry" to learn probability, perhaps other, shorter books maybe better for you, like Jacod and Protter's Probability Essentials, or Rosenthal's A First Look at Rigorous Probability Theory, both of which are also clear and excellent texts though not nearly as comprehensive like Klenke's.

Comprehensive introductory reference
I've only skimmed my library's copy, and so decided to buy it. While aimed at an undergrad level, it appears to be remarkably comprehensive. Although I was already familiar with most areas covered in the book, I'd only picked up my knowledge piecemeal, from many different, and disparate sources. Thus, I was pleasantly surprised to find all this info in just one place.

The book may strike some readers as "dense", and it does resemble a reference work. It is stuffed with precise definitions, reviewing all of the variants of a given definition, carefully making subtle distinctions. This may make it tough slogging for the beginner, but seems ideal for anyone who is already familiar with the subject, and wants to dig a little deeper, or to have a handy introductory reference. ... Read more

Product Description

Intuitive Probability and Random Processes using MATLAB® is an introduction to probability and random processes that merges theory with practice. Based on the author’s belief that only "hands-on" experience with the material can promote intuitive understanding, the approach is to motivate the need for theory using MATLAB examples, followed by theory and analysis, and finally descriptions of "real-world" examples to acquaint the reader with a wide variety of applications. The latter is intended to answer the usual question "Why do we have to study this?" Other salient features are:

*heavy reliance on computer simulation for illustration and student exercises

*the incorporation of MATLAB programs and code segments

*discussion of discrete random variables followed by continuous random variables to minimize confusion

*summary sections at the beginning of each chapter

*in-line equation explanations

*warnings on common errors and pitfalls

*over 750 problems designed to help the reader assimilate and extend the concepts

Intuitive Probability and Random Processes using MATLAB® is intended for undergraduate and first-year graduate students in engineering. The practicing engineer as well as others having the appropriate mathematical background will also benefit from this book.

About the Author

Steven M. Kay is a Professor of Electrical Engineering at the University of Rhode Island and a leading expert in signal processing. He has received the Education Award "for outstanding contributions in education and in writing scholarly books and texts..." from the IEEE Signal Processing society and has been listed as among the 250 most cited researchers in the world in engineering.

Customer Reviews (11)

Probability Textbook
The textbook was new quality, however it did not arrive the first time it was shipped, nor did it return to the sender. After about two weeks the sender shipped a second book. The second shipping took longer than the 6-7 business days that was promised and I needed the book for a class. So although the quality of the book was very good, the delivery was less than pleasing.

Excellent text for engineers
Given the flood of books with titles "Probability/Random Variables/Stochastic Processes for Engineers" on the marketone is
justified in asking what a new book on this classical topic could possibly add to the mix. In short, this is the best introductory text (currently in print) on this notoriously
difficult material. Prof. Kay is an excellent writer and teacher. All the right topics are covered. The MATLAB examples
are great. The one slight issue I take with this book is its large size and weight. The monotonically increasing size of textbooks is one of my pet peeves. However, I digress. The truth is that all things considered, I have seen
50 + books on this subject matter and have yet
to see this materialexplained in a better or clearer way. If you are taking a course in this area that uses a different text, I strongly recommend you pick up a copy
of this text and compare the explanations for the same topic. You will not be disappointed.

(Postscript: The author has also written two excellent books on statistical signal processing that have also set the standard.)

Best probability book
This book is easily the BEST BOOK I have come across for probability,random variables and random processes. Concepts are explained very clearly with lot of worked examples. This book is suitable for undergrads and graduates as well. If you are interested in mastering probability and random process concepts, this is a MUST BUY. Believe me on this. The concepts and formulas you learn from this book will be useful through out your research career in signal processing, communication theory, control theory, estimation / detection, remote sensing, computational engineering, mathematical physics and so on. Another good book for undergrads : Yates and Goodman.
Stark and Woods is probably a graduate level book.

From intuition to theoretical. Excellent book.
I bought this book after reading his "Statisticl Signal Processing" book. It was the first of his books I read and I was surprised at the easiness of reading despite probability and statistics being one my not-so-liked areas. I picked this book up just as a reference for probability but I eneded up reading almost all the book (except for couple chapters at the very end). He described everything from the proof. This book is highly recommended for undergraduates starting with probability/statistics but you can definitely use this in your graduate studies as I do. Kay is one of the best teachers.

Excellent, A Classical textbook for Probability Theory
This should be the classical textbook for probability theory, for undergrad. and first year graduate students. I like the style of writing of Steven Kay. This book, together with his two other books: Detection and Estimation theory, should be the first set of books to read by anyone in statistical signal processing field. The only missing thing is solutions to the subset of problems he is referring to in the text. ... Read more

Product Description
While most books on trading deal with general concepts and shy away from specifics, Forex Patterns and Probabilities provides you with real-world strategies and a rare sense of clarity about the specific mechanics of currency trading. Leading trading educator Ed Ponsi will explain the driving forces in the currency markets and will provide strategies to enter, exit, and manage successful trades. Dozens of chart examples and explanations will guide you each step of the way and allow the reader to "look over the shoulder" of a professional trader hard at work at his craft.

This book provides traders with step-by-step methodologies that are based on real market tendencies. The strategies in this book are presented clearly and in detail, so that anyone who wishes to can learn how to trade like a professional. It is written in a style that is easy to understand, so that the reader can quickly learn and use the techniques provided. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (49)

Trending and Non-Trending Methods
This book comprises four parts.Two parts deal with the general
ideas of Fx like and unlevel playing field.One part deals with
0the Fx-Ed Trending Technique involving EMA 10 and the Average
True Range (as a stop loss order).Another part deals with non-
trending methods like the carry trade.I find the trending
method better written than the non-trending method.

Short sections with interesting sub-headings make reading easy.
The book is also written in contemporary conversational style.
It contains plenty of charts to illustrate the points. Whether
the methods written could work or not, they would have to be tested out.

very good forex learning book to add to my collection
The only reason i wouldnt rate this book a 5 is because some of the strategies discussed are already readily availible on the internet. other than that good back with a good section on money management.

Direct and to the point
This book is very much to the point and written in human readable way, not delving into abscure mathamatics and graphs.

It is what a good book should be
The book is intended for beginner traders or traders who are struggling with their strategies.

I cannot say if the concrete strategies are actually profitable or not, however the author has very good insight on the nature of some indicators and price action, and this information can be accommodated to whatever plans or strategies you have.

The information on account management and growth is great. His ideas on why trading from a larger scale and why this is the best way to go are the strongest I have read so far. Also, he does great at teaching the management of trades, SL and TP.

Finally, he is very funny and the best writer on Forex out of the books that I have read, which, by the way, is very rare. Forex writers tend to be unskilled.

Please do not expect to get rich out of reading this book. If that is your expectation, I recommend you buy a lottery ticket instead.

Forex guide for both new and experienced traders
Have read several books on Forex, but by far, I find this book by Ed Ponsi to be most beneficial to me. The easy to follow guide and examples are simply great. A great book. ... Read more

Product Description
Explores concept of probability, surveys rules for addition and multiplication of probabilities, conditional probability, total probability, Bayes formula, Bernoulli’s scheme, random variables, the Chebychev inequality, distribution curves, and the means by which an event is declared to be in practice impossible.
... Read more

Customer Reviews (3)

a model of clarity
This book explains concepts simply and clearly.It is the exact opposite of a typical American math book which is filled with useless formalism and endlessly repeated examples.This book conveys the core concepts of probability quickly and seemingly effortlessly.

An illuminating introduction to probability theory.
This brief text, which was written for high school students in the Soviet Union following World War II, is an illuminating introduction to probability theory that does not require a foundation in calculus.The authors develop the theory by generalizing from examples, most of which are taken from military or industrial applications.This gives the reader insight into how mathematicians develop theorems by abstracting from problems arising in the real world.The theorems are proved rigorously except in the final chapter on normal distributions.Formal proofs about normal distributions require advanced mathematics not familiar to the intended audience.

Probability theory is developed in the first section of the text.The authors define probability.They explain the addition rule and how it simplifies when events are mutually exclusive. Likewise, after they obtain the multiplication rule in terms of conditional probabilities, they explain how it simplifies when events are mutually independent.The authors discuss Bayes' formula for the probability of a hypothesis given that a given event has been observed using several examples.They then prove Bernoulli's formula for the most probable number of occurrences of an event when there are a large number of trials.

The second section of the text is on random variables. The authors discuss laws of distribution, mean values, variance and standard of deviation, and how these quantities are used to measure the dispersion of a random variable.Their development culminates in Chebyshev's law of large numbers.In the final chapter on normal distributions, the authors informally discuss their properties and show how they can be used to solve problems.

In a brief conclusion, the authors discuss other developments in probability theory that are beyond the scope of this text.

This text is an excellent introduction to probability theory.I recommend it highly for the insights it offers.However, it does not contain exercises.To learn mathematics, one must solve problems.Therefore, I suggest that you read this text in conjunction with a problem book on probability or a text on probability that does contain exercises such as Samuel Goldberg's Probability: An Introduction.

Old and useful, but get something else
Even though the fifth edition of this book was published in 1961, this book still gives a useful and brief introduction to probability.However, if you're going to buy a book to learn statistics or probability, I would suggest a more recent book.They may not be as brief and concise as this, but newer books would be more up to date.One interesting thing about the Gnedenko/Khinchin book is their examples and problems, which involve things such as the production of artillery shells, or hitting targets with cannons.It is a very welcome change from the traditional, but obvious examples that use decks of cards or dice.Also, it says things about the audience for whom this book was originally meant, and the relevant topics of the time of the cold war.Still, I suggest a more recent text. ... Read more

Product Description
A compelling journey through history, mathematics, and philosophy, charting humanity’s struggle against randomness

Our lives are played out in the arena of chance. However little we recognize it in our day-to-day existence, we are always riding the odds, seeking out certainty but settling—reluctantly—for likelihood, building our beliefs on the shadowy props of probability. Chances Are is the story of man’s millennia-long search for the tools to manage the recurrent but unpredictable—to help us prevent, or at least mitigate, the seemingly random blows of disaster, disease, and injustice. In these pages, we meet the brilliant individuals who developed the first abstract formulations of probability, as well as the intrepid visionaries who recognized their practical applications—from gamblers to military strategists to meteorologists to medical researchers, from blackjack to our own mortality. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (30)

Poorly explained with numerous errors
Of all the popular science I've read this is by far the most incoherently laid out, poorly explained and has numerous errors. I wouldn't recommend this book to anyone seeking either of an informative read or a popular explanation of statistics.

Worth Reading, But......
Imagine traveling through a wormhole, at high speed, constantly twisting and turning; you want to stop and admire a beautiful pattern, see it in depth, but you are whipped away to the next turn.There are glimpses of beautiful ideas in this book, but to pursue them you will need to read more elsewhere.

This book touches on an impressive number of topics related to probability and game theory, and the authors weave in a number of interesting bits of history. Sadly, they touch on many topics very lightly and incompletely.

There are the makings of at least 4 or 5 really good books here, if the topics are properly covered.Overall this is worth reading, as the research behind this book is stunning in scope even if none of the ideas are adequately explicated.

Impressive!
This is an impressive book in its conception and execution. The great applicability of statistics and probability theory to practically all significant areas of human endeavor is explored in this very wide-ranging, educational and - no other word for it - learned work - the breadth and depth of the knowledge of the authors is very impressive.

The main criticism that i have is a nit - suggest you get the hardcover edition - the paperback editiion does not quite do justice to this fine work.

The other point to note is that the material presented is non-trivial - some of it may benefit from multiple readings - so be prepared to put in the effort. If you hold up your end of the bargain - you will not be disappointed - you may even be convinced (like i am) that a solid foundation in these concepts should be required education for all.You may even be inspired to study some more statistics and probability on your own.

history, philosophy and interesting stories rolled into one book on chance
I am not familiar with the authors or their background in mathematics and statistics but I do think they have put together a very interesting and historically accurate story about probability it origins and its paradoxes and the famous people who developed the theory.I have read Stigler and Hald and their wonderful accounts of the history of statistics but there are stories in hear that I have never heard before.I hope they are all true. They all seem very plausible to me.For example the Monte Carlo method whose history I researched when I wrote a chapter on it for a US Army Compendium on Risk Analysis is covered with a story about Stan Ulam that I did not know.Ulam was one of the great mathematicians/probabilists brought to Los Alamos to work on the Manhattan Project during WWII.At that time John von Neumann was developing one of the first digital computers.In my research I trace the Monte Carlo method back to the Buffon needle problem in the 1700s.But that was a physical experiment with a probability model associated with it.Also they certainly did not call in Monte Carlo back then.
According to the Kaplan's, Ulam was convalescing from an illness in 1946 and decided to play games of solitaire. It got him to thinking about the odds of "playing out" or winning a solitaire game.For a long time he tried to compute the result but the combinatorics was too complicated.Eventually, he abandoned that approach and thought about having a computer shuffle the deck of cards and play the game over and over again.When he brought this idea to the attention of von Neumann, von Neumann coined the term Monte Carlo method for such computer simulations.
I found this to be a very nice and plausible story.I am a little puzzled because although there can be arrangements of the deck that make winning very easy and other arrangements that make winning impossible, the player has to use a strategy when playing out a hand.Not every move is automatic and when there are two or more seemingly good choices the deck could be set up in a way that one choice would lead to a guaranteed lose while another could lead to win.So there is an element of skill involved in solitaire making the long run success probablity vary depending on the skill of the player.However, for a computer it may be possible to work out an optimal strategy that could be played if the whole deck were uncovered in the beginning.Then we could have a unique solution.So if the story is true there is a hidden assumption that the Kapln's neglected to discuss with us.In spite of the very minor flaw I thought the book was delightful and outstanding and therefore deserving of five stars!!

like the Wordly Philosophers, but for probability
One of my favorite books is The Worldly Philosophers by Heilbroner. (The Worldly Philosophers: The Lives, Times And Ideas Of The Great Economic Thinkers [7th Edition]That book is a great explanation of economics by discussing the various economists who developed the field.The Kaplan book uses a somewhat similar approach and succeeds in making the topic(s) of probability, chance and odds very interesting by their numerous vignettes and fun portraits of the pioneers and odd-balls who "invented" the field of statistics and probabilities (or were they already there and they "discovered" them?).Written with a great deal of humor, its a great read.If any other readers know of similar books, could you share some comparable books? ... Read more