Product Description
From one of the most influential economists of the last 100 years, comes this fascinating treatise on the basic concepts of government involvement in a nation's economic affairs. How far should a government reach into a free economy? How much and/or to what extent is government intervention warranted? These questions are very timely given today's economic situation which have compelled students of economics and policy makers alike to reach back to Keynes, the father of modern macroeconomic theory, who explored and studied these very questions. "The End of Laissez-Faire" comes from a series of lectures that Keynes gave in London and Berlin and reveal that, even though we are struggling with these same questions today, the issue of government intervention is not a new one and indeed the deeds of the past are lessons for today. ... Read more

Product Description
As the most important figures in the history of economics, the work of John Maynard Keynes is nearly without precedent in the history of economics.THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF PEACE, first published in 1919, achieved great notoriety due of its contemptuous critique of the French premier as well as President Woodrow Wilson.Keynes criticized the Allied victors for signing the Treaty of Versailles in 1920, which would have ruinous consequences for Europe. At the time, few world and economic leaders appreciated his criticisms as Keynes saw his worst fears realized in the rise of Adolf Hitler and the resulting devastation of World War II.JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES (1883-1946) was born into an academic family. His father, John Nevile Keynes, was a lecturer at the University of Cambridge where he taught logic and political economy while his son was educated at Eton and Cambridge.Most importantly, Keynes revolutionized economics with his classic book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936).This work is generally regarded as perhaps the most influential social science treatise of the 20th Century, as it quickly and permanently changed the scope of economic thought.Interestingly, Keynes was a central member of the Bloomsbury Group, a collection of upper-class Edwardian aesthetes that served as his life outside of economics, which included Virginia Woolf, Clive Bell, and Lytton Strachey. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (4)

Keynes' disorganized critique of the Versailles Treaty
This book achieved instant fame when it was published in 1919, not only for its scathing criticism of the Versailles Treaty but also for its personal attacks against leading signatories (especially Clemenceau and Wilson).For a book focused primarily on economic concerns, the text is surprisingly easy to read.However, the book's poor organization vitally detracts from its effectiveness.The principle reason the book is still famous today lies in the fact that it was written by none other than John Maynard Keynes, the founder of 20th century style, gov't & debt driven economics.

The book is organized into chapters on pre-war Europe, Allied statesmen, summary of key treaty points, reparations, post-war Europe predictions, and Keynes' suggestion of remedies to provide a practical treaty settlement.Unfortunately, within each chapter things are jumbled together without clear rhyme or reason.(Is this indicative of Keynes' own personal organization and logical thinking?)

Within the book, he makes a very practical (but politically infeasible) argument for a non-vindictive treaty.He basically suggests that the Allies should forget both about reparations and repayment of wartime debts from the other Allies, and instead they should settle (though not ideally) for frontier adjustments and confiscation of only German gov't property.(Did the German gov't sponsor Keynes' work in writing this book?)

Keynes argues that a crushing reparations burden on the German people would disincent them to produce anything beyond a mere subsistence minimum and discourage entrepreneurial enterprise.There is some logic in this point; however, later on he goes on to state that the US should forgive its $10 billion debt to its wartime allies ($5 billion of which was owed by the UK).Forgive me if I'm wrong, but doesn't such a move disincent American entreprises from entrepreneurship as well.It's extremely hypocritical that the Allied gov'ts desperately sought loans from the US during the war and then once it was over to claim that they couldn't pay them.If they didn't want to repay, then they shouldn't have borrowed the money - period.(If I borrow money to buy a home, the bank won't ever agree to forgive my debt - regardless of whether I'm out of work, injured, or the house burns down.I don't see why gov'ts should get any exceptional treatment.)

Notwithstanding his problems with disorganization and inconsistent logic, Keynes does produce a reasonable, brief list of treaty rememdies, especially in his efforts to restore economic life throughout Central and Eastern Europe.Not until the advent of the Cold War and the interests of extending American political influence would Keynes' policies largely succeed (albeit yet again to the detriment of American taxpayers).

Overall, I felt the book was ok.I would only recommend it if you have an interest in reading all of Keynes' work.Don't expect to find any theoretical economic insights in the book, though.

A Perceptive Assessment and Prognosis of the Versailles "Peace" Conference
The late James J. Martin remarked that those who did not think that The Versailles Peace Conference did not have anything to do with World War II should read Keynes to correct this false notion.John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946)was one of the early "revisionists" who clearly saw how destructive the Versailles Treat was.He also had insight into the political leaders who forced this Carthaginian peace on the Germans.

Keynes was a representative of the British delegation to Versailles in 1919 and soon resigned in protest.He diagnosed the defects of Pres. Woodrow Wilson who was supposedly the most influential man at Versailles.Keynes accurately described Pres. Wilson as a naive Don Quixoti who had no knowledge of European History or basic diplomacy.Wilson was under the illusion that his status would be enough to impose his Fourteen Points and League of Nations on Eureopan leaders who were hard hearted and did not care for such naive idealism.Pres. Wilson was in a den of thieves and was not aware of it.Wilson could not evaluate the situation and was too self righteous to negotiate intelligently.Pres. Wilson thought he would impose the Versailles in the Americans, get the Americans to join the League of Nations, and end sin throughout the world.He obviously failed miserable as events proved.Members of the United States even refused to ratify the Versailles Treaty, and the Americans never did join the League of Nation.

Keynes goes into precise detail to explain what the World War I and the Versailles Treaty was doing and would do to those in German and in Central and Eastern Europe.Keynes gave pricise details of malnutrition, lack of medical care, etc. and also gave a precise account of the health effects that deprivation caused these people.

Keynes is just as precise in explaining the effects of looting the Germans with a huge reparation bill of $50 billion.If one can account for the increase of inflation between 1919 and now (2006), the bill may be fifty to a hundred times higher.This imposition was placed on Germans who lost their merchant marine fleet, colonies, and territroy.Added to that was the privations of World War I and the cruel blockade of the Germans by the British after hostilities ended.

However, Keynes was perceptive enough to know that if the German economy collapsed, eventually the European economies would also collapse.The Germans were advanced in steel production, chemical industries, etc.Prior to World War I, the Euroepans, friends and foes, relied more on German economic production and trade than they willing to admit.In other words, if the German economy collapsed, it was only a matter of time that much of Europe would follow.

Keynes wrote this book in 1919, and events in Europe took place as Keynes suggested they would.Those who argue that the "allies" should have intervened in German earlier that 1939 should realize that the time for interventions was in 1919 when a sensible peace treaty based on negotiations would have muted any German resentment.The laissez-faire and free market lads have blamed Keynes for all the woes in the West since World War I.The fact is Keynes did not create the modern state and the problems that have occured.All he did was view a bad situation and made a reasoned response to it.

Peace which sowed the seeds of its own destruction
Great British economist John Maynard Keynes second book recounts his assessment of the economic consequences of the Treaty of Versailles, where he was a member of British delegation as an economic expert.
Keynes starts with providing a dazzling psychological analysis on how the treaty came to be.
"When President Wilson left Washinghton he enjoyed a prestige and a moral influence throughout the world unequalled in history ... Never had a philosopher help such weapons wherewith to bind the princes of this world. How the crowds of the European capitals presses about the carriage of the President! With what curiosity, anxiety, and hope we sought a glimpse of the features and bearing of the man of destiny who, coming from the West, was to bring healing to the wounds of the ancient parent of this civilization and lay for us the foundations and the future"
Alas, this was not to be. American idealism, French quest for security and British distaste for alliances and hypocrisy created an unworkable solution. Soul of the treaty was sacrificed to placate domestic political process, and as the result put Germany in the position of defiance and economic insolvency; the position which at the bottom drew sympathy from the former Allies and as the result contributed to brutality of the second conflict.
Keynes draws a picture of pan-European economy which was destroyed by the treaty and rightfully predicted that not only Germany will not be able to pay, but will be obligated to pursue the expansionist policy at the expense of her weak Eastern neighbors. Treaty did not contain any positive economic programme for rehabilitation of the economic life of Central powers and Russia. One just could not disrupt the economic position of the greatest European land power, at the same time strengthening it geo-politically and suffer no horrible retribution. ""The Peace Treaty of Versailles: This is not Peace. It is an Armistice
for twenty years." - said Foch about such a agreement.

The Consequences of injustice
Keynes took the opportunity proffered to him in 1919 to voice the fears of many of his fellow countrymen that the treaty recently signed at Versailles stripping Germany of it's colonies, a substantial portion of it's population, all it's overseas concessions, its air force, any place at the League of Nations and an enormous amount in reparations payments to be made over the coming years, was an act of consummate folly that would only lead to future war. He took great pains to point out the folly of the French position at the conference, namely to be as extreme as possible, cognisant of the fact that their claims would be moderated and noted that in several cases where the British and US delegations had no specific interest, provisions were passed 'on the nod' which even the French would not have subscribed to. Keynes was damning about both Clemenceau and Wilson and pointed out that almost everything had been done which 'might impoverish Germany now or obstruct her development in future' and that to demand such colossal reparations without any real notion of whether Germany had the means to pay was foolhardy in the extreme.

Keynes book provided a fulcrum for British doubt about the treaty and an avenue for British sympathy with the fledgling German Republic.Keynes made treaty revision a thing of morality and enlightened self interest to avoid 'sowing the decay of the whole of civilised life of Europe'. ... Read more

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Customer Reviews (2)

Buddy, can you spare a trillion?
At a time when the world needs the help of the highest and most intelligent voices of economic wisdom, it's truly a shame such false reviews, as the last, are even allowed to stand, at such a respectable business enterprise as Amazon.com. When one of the world's most respected macro-economists is even compared to the likes of one, "mister b", by "mister b" himself, it's not the point he's allowed to falsely criticize, but that he thinks so much of his own false ego. His points of mathematical economics have been not only refuted by others, but by his own omissions of admissions, in defense of his own bad economics book on Keynes, at this very site. Just go to his book's reviews and comments. Here's a serious culled example of criticism against "mister b's" ideas and book:

The D-Z is Model Built On What Keynes Knew Were False Assumptions
Keynes offers some uncharacteristically sound advice in chapter 21: "It is a great fault of symbolic pseudo-mathematical methods of formalizing a system of economic analysis, such as we shall set down in section VI of this chapter, that they expressly assume strict independence between the factors involved and lose all their cogency and authority if this hypothesis is disallowed ... Too large a proportion of recent 'mathematical' economics are mere concoctions, as imprecise as the initial assumptions they rest on, which allow the author to lose sight of the complexities and interdependencies of the real world in a maze of pretentious and unhelpful symbols (p. 297-298)." This quotation should drive home the point I have tried to make above regarding the independency of certain variables. Keynes has just admitted the model loses all validity if we admit for only an instant that these variables are not independent. Keynes has also admitted that the real world consists of interdependencies and hence D-Z model falls to the ground. Brady is especially guilty of losing "sight of the complexities and interdependencies of the real world in a maze of pretentious and unhelpful symbols."

One "mister b" should re-study, or at least read, Thorstein Veblen to find there is such a matter as the epistemological limits of all mathematical modeling, as Keynes so aptly pointed out, and Mr. Paul Davidson, whom I've followed for years, reading most of his papers and books, of thoroughly sound judgment, and impeccable character, clearly points out in his masterpiece of absolutely true history, and sound mathematical interpretations of what Keynes truly meant. Keynes must be studied very thoroughly to achieve understanding his GT, as his personality was quite sarcastic at times, especially at moments of writings where he disagreed with others. Paul has easily seen through this, as have I, and writes with the clear certainty of knowing his subject, and subject matter, most profoundly.

Paul Davidson's Keynes's book is the seminal work of macro-economic theory. I highly recommend it, as well as all his papers and books, if you truly want to know the exact model comparison science of the mathematical history of economics, and the proper axiomatic mathematics to use, to work out these models___There is no finer work.

Some interesting chapters and some error filled chapters
Davidson's book on Keynes starts out providing useful information to a reader who has little or no familiarity with Keynes's contributions to economics.Davidson covers Keynes's intellectual and political views effectively.He demonstrates clearly and correctly how World War I severely inpacted how Keynes thought about social,political,and economic problems, on either a national or international plane,for the rest of his life.Chapters 8-11 covers Keynes's attempts to set up a sturdy logical,theoretical,and politically sound foundation(International Monetary Fund,World Bank,Bancor) after World War II that would prevent the types of international problems(International trade disputes,misuses of tariffs and quotas, "beggar your neighbor " trading policies,etc.) that had ,in Keynes's opinion,contributed to the outbreaks of World Wars I and II from reoccurring in the future.


Chapters 1,2,3,most of 4,7,8,9,10,and 11 can be read profitably by a general reader interested in Keynes's contributions to international trade and finance issues(balance of trade,balance of payments,liquidity-foreign debt,and debt financingproblems of second and third world countries).

Severe problems arise primarily in chapters 5,6,and 12, where Davidson erroneouly claims that he is providing the reader with the correct technical model(D-Z Model) used by Keynes in the GT to illustrate his theory of effective demand.Davidson presents his own severely mathematically flawed ,Davidsonian version of Keynes's model.Davidson works only with the rudimentary, 6th grade,pre algebra outline that Keynes presented to the reader as a basic guide to what he would later actually accomplish in chapters 19,the appendix to chapter 19,chapter 20,and chapter 21, in chapter 3 of the GT.Davidson,as he has done for close to 50 years,does not tell the reader that Keynes viewed this chapter,chapter 3, as a beginner'soutline that would probably be unintelligible to many readers.Davidson redefinesall of Keynes's mathematical functions in the GT,replacing Keynes's definitions with his own.For instance,Davidson sets theZ function ,Keynes's expected aggregate supply function, equal to pO.Contrary to Davidson, Keynes defined D=pO 5 times in chapter 20,pp.283-284,where p is an expected price and O is a function of N;hence,it is an aggregate production function.D is Keynes's expected aggregate demand function.Keynes defined Z to be equal to WN+P on pp.23-24 of the GT.Integration of Keynes's derivatives, in those sections of the GT where Keynes did his mathematical analysis, all come out to Z=WN+P,where P is expected profit,W is the money wage ,and N is employment.Keynes defined the actual or current aggregate demand function,Y,to be equal to C+I=PO,where,in the context of the Y-multiplier model of chapter 10,P is an actual or current price(GT,p.209).Davidson redefines D,Keynes's expected aggregate demand function,to be equal to Y.None of the analysis provided by Davidson in this book has any connection with the mathematical analysis done by Keynes in chapters 20 and 21 of the GT.It should not come as a surprise that Keynes told Dennis Robertson,in a letter dated February 20,1935(see volume 14 of the CWJMK(1973),p.514(Davidson only cites from p.512),from whom Davidson has developed his Davidsonian model,that his technical analysis of Z and D is contained in a chapter in the GT called the Employment Function.Chapter 20 of the GT is called The Employment Function.

We now come to the final chapter of the book.This chapter is an attack on Paul Samuelson.Davidson claims that Samuelson has misrepresented the technical aspects of Keynes's theory of effective demand when Samuelson put forthhis 45 degree cross model of income-expenditure in 1948. In fact,Samuelson's model is a brilliant simplification of the GT that allows Keynes's major insights to be presented to introductory economics student.Samuelson refrained from any serious attempt to master the technical side of the GT because Davidson's close associates,Joan Robinson,Richard Kahn,and Austin Robinson,had convinced Samuelson that there were major mathematical errors contained in the GT because Keynes had not taken their advice on economic modeling.The only conclusion possible,given the large number of errors committed by Davidson,Joan Robinson,and Richard Kahn concerning the technical aspects of the GT, is that they are the ones who are primarily responsible forkilling"... Cock Robin(John Maynard Keynes)".Chapter 12 is an excellent example of the pot(Davidson) claiming that the kettle(Samuelson) is black.Davidson needs to get the dust out of his eyes before he gives advice to others having similar problems. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (4)

I remain an immoralist
Although published in a special series, Jeffrey Escoffier's book gives a fair picture of the greatest economist of all times.
He draws heavily on R. Skidelsky's first 2 volumes of his magisterial biography of Keynes (the 3rd volume was not published when this book was edited), but he summarizes excellently Keynes's life and work.

Economically speaking, Keynes's core message is that in times of economic depression, governments should intervene in the economic process and boost people's income through public work programs. This stimulus is multiplied because part of the injected money is spent again and again.
In his characteristic sarcastic style Keynes lambastes the `love of the possession of money' as a disgusting morbidity. For him, thrift is a semi-pathological propensity. Enterprise is the creative force of the economy: the creation of goods that contribute to the pleasure of human interaction and aesthetic satisfaction.
Keynes saw the gold standard as a barbarous, naïve and unrealistic relic, surrendering the price level and the business cycle to the US Fed (holder of the bulk of the world's gold supply). Escoffier tells us that the gold exchange standard (use of convertible currency instead of gold as a reserve) was first adopted by the Indian government.

Keynes's famous phrase `In the long run we are all dead' has its roots in his probability theory. He stressed the political and ethical limitations of `long-term' notions in order to justify policies that are harmful in the short run: `Economists set themselves too easy a task if in the tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is long past the ocean is flat again.'

Ethically, Keynes was influenced by the philosophy of G.E. Moore: `personal affections and aesthetic enjoyments include all the greatest goods we can image.' Keynes's life and loves were a reaction against the puritanical Victorian moral attitude. During a great part of his life Keynes was an active homosexual without the slightest guilt. He even had casual sex with male street prostitutes.

His global view of mankind was elitist: `Civilization was a thin and precarious crust erected by the personality and the will of a very few.'

Jeffrey Escoffier's book shows us Keynes as an immoralist, sexually in the Victorian sense, and economically in the classical sense.

Not to be missed.

N.B. I do not agree with the author that Wittgenstein and Heidegger were the greatest philosophers of the 20th century. I believe Einstein, Heisenberg, Russell and Popper were much more important.

Keynes was bisexual/gay up to 1922 and straight thereafter
Escoffier(E)does an average job in analyzing Keynes's economics and politics for a young adult just starting out in college.There are some inaccuracies relating to Keynes's sexual orientation over his life span.First,Keynes,like his brother and sister,was sent away from home to board at schools and colleges where the instructors and staff were primarily gay men and women.In such an environment it should come as no surprise that he would adopt a similar lifestyle.Keynes was never gay.A more accurate description of Keynes up till 1922 was that he was gay/bisexual.Keynes met Lydia Lopokova in 1919.In 1922,he started to date her more and more frequently.They married in 1925.Keynes was straight from that time on.The best book on their relationship is "Lydia and Maynard"(1989).The publisher is Scribners.Escoffier presents noreliable evidence that Keynes continued agay or bisexual lifestyle after 1924.Given the very negative reception to Keynes's marriage by his former male sexual partners,the evidence is overwhelming that Keynes went straight.The subtitle of this book,"Lives of Notable Gay Men and Lesbians",is somewhat misleading.

A well rounded Maynard Keynes
Escoffier's book, part of a series called Lives of Notable Gay Men and Lesbians, admirably recaps the career of John Maynard Keynes, practical man, entrepreneur, aesthete, homosexual (well, probably)and, least I forget, the most important economist of the twentieth century.

The series, so far as I can tell, aims to provide biographies of prominent gay people targeted at bright adolescents. Escoffier's book fulfills its mandate, but does much, much more. In a very small compass it describes the period 1900-1945, discusses the political and economic questions that took up much of Keynes' life, and paints a rather engaging portrait of the Bloombury group. It is also a surprisingly balanced biography of Keynes. Without wanting to denigrate the series, I fear that the rubric under which the book appears will frighten off potential readers who are neither queer nor under 20 years of age.

That would be a mistake.Other than the massive three volume biography, and Heilbroner's witty synopsis of 40 years ago, there is a real paucity of good information about John Maynard Keynes, and an excess of misinformation, maybe even disinformation. This biography can be read in an afternoon, possibly at one sitting, yet it is good enough to recommend to anyone who wants to understand that political and monetary hopes and disappointments of the first half of the twentieth century.Escoffier is not afraid to call them as he sees them, but the result is surprisingly fair and balanced, even ifI would not have phrased some things the way Escoffier did . His stress on exploitation as the hinge on whichthe Edwardian economy turned gave me pause, but it is not necessarily incorrect.So far as I can tell, Escoffier's views on a number of questions are quite different from those of Keynes, nor is this book a work of hagiography, which makes the overall fairness of the result even more remarkable. In short, I really do recommend that you read this book ifyou have any interest in any of its topics: Edwardian Britain, the Treaty of Versailles, economics, Bloomsbury, government finance (the Bush administration seems to be radically "keynesian" in a way John Maynard might not have approved), or being queer in the first part of the 20th century.

Not all that he's chalked up to be
This book shows a new side of John Maynard Keynes -- one which is not particularly well known.It shows the man behind the economic genius and does this quite well.I loved this book. ... Read more

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Kessinger Publishing is the place to find hundreds of thousands of rare and hard-to-find books with something of interest for everyone! ... Read more

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Great Introduction to the Economics of Keynes
This is a great book on Keynes, and the title is appropriate --- It is a book about Keynes' 1936 book The General Theory, and not about Keynesian (Hicks-Hansen) economics.

It is written in clear and engaging prose, and is remarkably novel considering its date of publication (1948).Dillard also anticipated the American Post Keynesian rendition of the Z-D model by several years.The outline of the book is really great.It covers the whole of Keynes' General Theory book.Dillard recognizes the importance of uncertainty in economic instability, and correctly attributes this state to the investment side of income and employment activity (and not the consumption side).

This is probably the first American Post Keynesian book to be written, and it is a shame mose Post Keynesian authors have ignored it.Several reasons can explain this.Dillard does not follow Davidson in attributing unemployment to liquidity preference and the essential properties of money(approximately zero elasticities of substitution and production), although he does mention them.But Dillard is on the right track by locating the soruce of instability in the rapid movements of the marginal efficiency of capital due to the insecure foundations of investor expectations.Also, Dillard accepted without question the argument that the money supply can be directly controlled, and used this to explain the interest rate (consisting of the strength of liquidity preference and the money supply).But Dillard is on the right track in attributing greater importance to liquidity preference rathern than money supply.My favorite part of the book was Dillard's discussion of Expectations (pp. 142-153).

Every person interested in what Keynes did in his General Theory book should read this book very carefully.Read chapters 1-3 twice, and then look at chapters 5, 7, 8 and 9 to see what Keynes accomplished in his revolution.

Confused about the aggregate supply function Z
Dillard is unable to deal with Keynes's General Theory(GT) because he writes under the misconception that Keynes's analysis of his aggregate supply function,Z,is contained in chapter 3 of the GT.Keynes made it perfectly clear that there was no analysis of any part of his theory of effective demand contained in chapter 3 of the GT.Keynes stated that there was an introductory outline in chapter 3 that might be unintelligible to the reader until it was filled in in later chapters.These later chapters are chapter 19(and its appendix),chapter 20,and chapter 21.This is obvious to anyone who is not mathematically illiterate.Keynes faced the same question from Dennis Robertson ,a self admitted mathematical illiterate ,in 1935.Keynes had sent Robertson the first 19 chapters of a draft copy of the GT.These 19 chapters are the same as the first 17 chapters of the GT.Robertson stated that he had no idea about what Keynes meant in chapter 3 of the GT about the functions D and Z and that he considered Keynes 's analysis to be hocus pocus and a lot of"...mumbo jumbo".Keynes told him that his analysis ofthe employment function, D ,and Z occurred in a later chapter that Keynes had not sent him.It is obvious from the title of chapter 20 of the GT,"The Employment Function",that it is chapter 20 and not chapter 3 that contains Keynes's worked out analysis.None of this is covered anywhere in Dillard's book or any other book written by a Post Keynesian economist(Paul Davidson,Douglas Vickers,Jan Kregel,Paul Wells,etc.) or any other kind of economist in the 20th century.

A nice book to read....
Dillard relly seems to have understood keynes.. I'd say he wrote the book with the situation that Keynes faced in kind.. The culmination of events..How must keynes have come to his conclusions in the GeneralTheory.

A Must Read!! ... Read more

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Excellent Book About John Maynard Keynes
Here's another well-written book in the Profiles in Economics series. The husband and wife writing team of Dwight Lee and Cynthia Crain do an outstanding job of presenting the life of John Maynard Keynes. I highly recommend this book as well as the others in this series written by Crain and Lee. ... Read more

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Purchase of this book includes free trial access to www.million-books.com where you can read more than a million books for free.This is an OCR edition with typos.Excerpt from book:CHAPTER IIITHE MEASUREMENT OP PROBABILITIES1. I Have spoken of probability as being concerned with degrees of rational belief. This phrase implies that it is in some sense quantitative and perhaps capable of measurement. The theory of probable arguments must be much occupied, therefore, with comparisons of the respective weights which attach to different arguments. With this question we will now concern ourselves.It has been assumed hitherto as a matter of course that probability is, in the full and literal sense of the word, measurable. I shall have to limit, not extend, the popular doctrine. But. keeping my own theories in the background for the moment, I will begin by discussing some existing opinions on the subject.2. It has been sometimes supposed that a numerical comparison between the degrees of any pair of probabilities is not only conceivable but is actually within our power. Bentham, for instance, in his Rationale of Judicial Evidence? proposed a scale on which witnesses might mark the degree of their certainty; and others have suggested seriously a ' barometer of probability.' 2That such comparison is theoretically possible, whether or not we are actually competent in every case to make the comparison, has been the generally accepted opinion. The following quotation 3 puts this point of view very well:" I do not see on what ground it can be doubted that everydefinite state of belief concerning a proposed hypothesis is in itself capable of being represented by a numerical expression, however difficult or impracticable it may be to ascertain its actual value. It would be very difficult to estimate in numbers the vis viva of all of the particles of a human body at any instant; but no one doubts that it is capable of numerical expression. I mention t... ... Read more

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A Treatise on Probability by General Books LLC is OCR nonsense
This particular edition (A Treatise on Probability by General Books LLC) of the book seems a ripoff to me and I strongly recommend against buying it.

The small print on the front pages states that the book was created with OCR, to "keep the cost as low as possible".

This was not clear from the Amazon web.

This is so bad that I will wait a few years before I buy anything more at Amazon.

Mathematical formulas that are undecipherable ... supposing these typographical trainwrecks were formulas in the first place

To name a few issues, apart from a stream of spelling errors:
- a table of contents with no titles, just "section 1", "section 2" and so on
- random sections: section 17 starts with "chapter XXI", section 30 with "chapter XXXIII", section 31 appears to be the index
- sections starting in midsentence and, conversely, "chapter XXIX" appearing unceremoniously halfway down a page
- an index which refers to seemingly random pagenumbers
- mathematical formulas that are undecipherable ... supposing these typographical trainwrecks were formulas in the first place
- footnotes strewn through the text, again supposing that the many lines starting with digits are indeed footnotes.
- no layout whatsoever

In short: Do not buy this.

This particular edition is unusable
This particular edition (A Treatise on Probability by General Books LLC) of the book seems a ripoff to me and I strongly recommend against buying it.
The small print on the front pages states that the book was created with OCR, to "keep the cost as low as possible".
That's all very well, but readability was kept as low as possible too.

To name a few issues, apart from a stream of spelling errors:
- a table of contents with no titles, just "section 1", "section 2" and so on
- random sections: section 17 starts with "chapter XXI", section 30 with "chapter XXXIII", section 31 appears to be the index
- sections starting in midsentence and, conversely, "chapter XXIX" appearing unceremoniously halfway down a page
- an index which refers to seemingly random pagenumbers
- mathematical formulas that are undecipherable ... supposing these typographical trainwrecks were formulas in the first place
- footnotes strewn through the text, again supposing that the many lines starting with digits are indeed footnotes.
- no layout whatsoever

Please read similar comments on:
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The offer to download the original scan of the book from their website [...] seems meaningless too,
I couldn't find the book by author, title, barcode or ISBN.

Interesting and scary
So you think you know how and why the markets work the way they do.... Try reading this!

Not Famous, for a reason
Keynes is famous for economics.This book is a
fairly well written introduction to probability,
but there are many other books which I would
recommend above it.

If you want to read Keynes, you might start
with "Essays in Persuasion".

Very extravagant
In fact the copy I received contains only blank pages, without any text, absolutly none. I don't know if it is odd. May be it is a singular copy. In any case, I am intending to keep the copy I received,and if there is a normal text available, I certainly would like to order one.
R.A.Naique, Lisbon (PORTUGAL) ... Read more

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This edition contains all Keynes's published writings, including less accessible articles and letters to the press, as well as previously unpublished speeches, government memoranda and minutes, drafts and economic correspondence. ... Read more

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The computer revolution of the 1960s ushered in a golden period of econometric model building. Lawrence Klein was constantly in the forefront of this development. He was awarded the Alfred Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics for this and other contributions to applied econometrics.

The 20th century witnessed a great expansion of economics as a scholarly discipline. The editor has chosen a selection of papers which sparked his interest as a student, a teacher and a researcher. This key volume includes both classic articles as well as lesser known papers which Professor Klein judges will stand the test of time. ... Read more

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'...among the glories of modern publishing...edited with exemplary authority and lack of fuss...' - London Review of BooksThis definitive edition contains all Keynes's published writings, including less accessible articles and letters to the press, as well as previously unpublished speeches, government memoranda and minutes, drafts and economic correspondence. No other writer in this century has done more than Maynard Keynes to change the ways in which economics is taught written. No other economist has done more to change the ways in which nations conduct their economic and financial affairs. The Collected Writings are indispensable to all economists. They are a vital reference work for students, academics and professionals alike. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (1)

This is actually volume 14 ,not volume 13,of the CWJMK
This is an excellent collection of correspondence between Keynes and numerous other economists over topics and ideas that would later turn out to be covered in the General Theory of Employment ,Interest and Money in 1936.Perhaps the most relevant part of the volume is contained on pp.373-375.It involves an exchange between Keynes and Richard Kahn over Keynes's initial breakthrough concerning the existence of multiple equilibria using the boundary and interior of the Production Possibilities Frontier curve model combined with a microeconomic foundation of purely competitive firms operating under constant returns to labor.Kahn demonstrates that he had absolutely no idea or understanding at all about what Keynes was doing.Kahn ,incredibly,confuses constant returns to labor with the case of constant cost.Kahn never recovered from this set back intellectually.

This is actually a review of Volume 13 concerning the preparation of the GT and not its defense and development.That is dealt with in Volume 14. ... Read more

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This important volume sheds new light on the ideas and policies of John Maynard Keynes.It presents nineteen contributions from an outstanding group of international economists who aim to understand Keynes as an economist whose work is still influential in both academic research and in more popular economic thought. Although it is over fifty years since John Maynard Keynes passed away, and over sixty years ago that The General Theorywas published, his ideas and policies continue to exert an enormous influence on academic economics, as well as being used to solve economic problems faced in the world today, and no doubt, the years to come.The decline of interest in Keynes and his policies during the 1970s has been replaced in the late eighties and nineties by a revival in academic interest, as well as the use of his policy suggestions to solve current economic problems.Divided into five sections, this book considers not only Keynes's theoretical contributions, but also his policies for money management, unemployment, wages and prices, and global governance and the state.As distinct from most other available volumes, this book examines Keynes's thoughts and policies in the context of the current economic climate as well as from the perspective of future economic problems, and how to remedy them. This important book will be of interest to graduate students, research scholars and academics interested in macroeconomics, the history of economic thought, Keynesian and Post-Keynesian thought. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (1)

Mathematically illiterate ramblings on Keynes
This book has one good essay contained in it.It is an essay written by Hans Wolfgang Singer on economic development.All of the other essays,written by Chick, Galbraith,Glickman, McCrombie,Kregel,Sawyer,Thrilwall,etc., merely repeat the previously error filled work on Keynes done by these same authors in the past.None of the four parts of the book,on Keynes,Theoretical contributions,Global Goverance and the State, and Unemployment,Wages,and Prices covers the main contributions of Keynes which can be expressed by the following GENERAL condition for optimal resource use at the macroscopic level-w/p=mpl/(mpc+mpi),where w is the money wage,p is the expected price level,mpl is the marginal product of labor derived from a neoclassical aggregated production function(see p.283 and p.285 of the General Theory),mpc is the marginal propensity to spend on consumption goods[mpc=1-(1/k)],and mpi[mpi=1/k,so that the investment multiplier is k] is the marginal propensity to spend on investment goods.We can combine the mpc+mpi in order to obtain an aggregated marginal propensity to spend out of income.The special neoclassical case is given when the marginal propensity to spend equals mpc+mpi=1=mps+mpc,where mps is the marginal propensity to save.Whenever the marginal propensity to spend is less than 1,( mpc+mpi<1),a set of stable ,multiple equilibria occurs where involuntary unemployment exists as the norm.It is impossible for labor,in the aggregate,to cut its money wage because the optimality condition requires that the money wage rises or price level falls(real wage increases) whenever the mpc +mpi<1.The same result can be obtained if the expected,optimal aggregate price of output ,p(where p is one of a set of possible expected prices),from chapter 20(D=pO) is greater thanthe actual,realized price specified on p.209(Y=PO)of the GT,so that p>P.Given that w/p is the optimal expected real wage,thereal wage must rise.Keynes provided a further generalization of his theory in chapter 21 in order to take into account the money market.The major result given on p.306 of the GT is that the neoclassical theory assumes that e=1.Keynes's generalized general theory then becomes e<=1.We obtain w/p=mpl/e.If the neoclassical special case obtains, e=1 and w/p=mpl at a full employment level of output.If e<=1,involuntary unemployment can occur and you have a set of multiple,stable equilibria ,only one of which will be the neoclassical special case.w will have to rise if e<1.It is impossible for labor,in the aggregate,to cut its money wage .No new light is provided by these essays because the writers are mathematically illiterate followers of the Dennis Robertson -Paul Davidson interpretation of the GT ,which assumes that pp. 24-30 of chapter 3 of the GT contains Keynes's theory of effective demand.Keynes himself told Robertson point blank in mid 1935 that chapter 3 of the GT DID NOT CONTAIN his theory of effective demand because Keynes had worked out all of the mathematical details in a later chapter that dealt explicitly ,inmathematical terms, with the Employment Function.All of the authors in this volume,either explicitly or implicitly ,accept the Dennis Robertson claim,which is the foundation of the Post Keynesian school's perspective on the GT.Both founders of the Post Keynesian school,Sydney Weintraub and Paul Davidson,have made the acceptance of the Robertsonian interpretation of pp.24-30 of the GT the cornerstone of their life's work on Keynes and a necessary condition for acceptance into the Post Keynesian hierarchy.It is no wonder that this school is viewed as no threat to neoclassical economics since Keynes explained quite clearly ,in great detail to Robertson ,that chapter 3 was a mere introduction to his theory of effective demand without any supporting analysis.Like Davidson and Weintraub, the essay writers in this book spend a great deal of time putting words into Keynes's mouth that he never used in his lifetime or concentrate on various obiter dicta that has nothing to do with the theory of effective demand.Reading this book will result in permanent confusion to any reader about what Keynes did in the GT.WHAT KEYNES DID IN ECONOMICS IS EXACTLY WHAT EINSTEIN DID IN PHYSICS. ... Read more

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The first two volumes of Robert Skidelsky's definitive and consummate biography of John Maynard Keynes were hailed as publishing events on both sides of the Atlantic. Already published to acclaim in Britain, this third and final volume covers Keynes's later years from 1937 to his death in 1946. During this period, Keynes's outstanding contribution to the financing of Britain's war effort, to the building of the postwar economic order, and his role in Britain's struggle to preserve its independence within the Atlantic alliance solidified the economist's lasting importance in twentieth-century history. Skidelsky lucidly explains Keynes's economic theories and masterfully evokes the complexities of his personality. The book abounds in lively anecdotes and memorable portraits, notably that of his devoted wife, Lydia Lopokova, whose eccentric but utterly logical post-Keynesian existence is charted in a delightful epilogue. Insightful and intelligent, this is a work that tells the story of a passionate and determined visionary and provides an invaluable overview of issues that remain at the center of international political and economic debate. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (2)

In the short run we are still alive
The last part of Robert Skidelsky's magnificent biography of J.M. Keynes is a tale about the fall of the British Empire with Keynes as one of its most clairvoyant and active go-betweens trying to avoid the disaster. Great-Britain had won the war but it was bankrupt crushed by its debt contracted to buy US weapons.
This book shows clearly through its analysis of the Bretton-Woods negotiations and the discussions about the conversion of the British debt, that the ultimate goal of the US Administration was to get Britain on its knees and to take its place as world leader.
The US prefered an alliance with the Soviet Union against Britain. Their most important negotiator H.D. White was a convinced Soviet spy.
Keynes defended exhaustingly Britain's role in world matters by begging time for a reconversion of the British industry from a war to a civilian economy and for safeguarding its Commomwealth with its preferential tariff and pound sterling payment system.
The humiliating conditions for its debt conversion imposed by the US would cripple the British economy for years.
The suicidal internecine European wars created a new world hegemon: the US.

Before the war, Keynes defended his 'Treatise' policies, but saw them applied in Germany by a very clever economist, Hjalmar Schacht, who also saved the German economy internationally by creating a bilateral trade system.
Prof. Skidelsky shows us also pregnantly the deterioration of Keynes's physical condition, aggravated by his exhausting travels, difficult (empty handed) negotiations and even hard opposition at home when he was in the US.

One could perhaps slightly criticize the exhaustive excerpts of letters or the extremely detailed evolution of the negotiations in Bretton-Woods or about British debt relief. But, all in all, this is a fascinating read.

A Major Force with Enduring Influence
In this, the third and concluding volume of his biography of Keynes, Skidelsky offers a brilliant analysis of one of the most influential thinkers of the 20th century. Skidelsky offers a remarkable discussion of the man (as opposed to the icon) whose influence seems to have fluctuated according to conventional (received?) wisdom with regard to fundamental economic principles. Economists have either agreed or disagreed about the value of Keynes's ideas (often with more heat than light) since the publication of his major work, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (1936). As a non-economist, I have only casually observed how his principles have gone in and out of favor as the national economy itselfimproves, flattens out, weakens, improves, etc. I enjoyed this book because it connected a human being with the principles to which so many others have referred in books and articles. Also because, as international trade accelerates in terms of both scope and depth (largely because of the Internet and the WWW), the role of government in each country will inevitably change...especially governments in those countries which were formerly members of the U.S.S.R. as well as in other countries in Asia, notably China. Thanks to Skidelsky's book, I am now much better prepared to recognize and understand such changes. I wish I had read the second volume in the trilogy (subtitled "The Economist as Savior") before reading this one. Those who read this review are urged to do so. However, judged wholly on its own merits, this final volume (subtitled "Fighting for Freedom") is a first-rate achievement. ... Read more

Customer Reviews (1)

Felix never covers Keynes's modeling in chapters 20 and 21
Felix simply lacks the necessary mathematical training in the differential and integral calculus that he needs in order for him to be successful incritically assessingthe model of the General Theory(GT) constructed by Keynes in chapters 3,10,19,20,and 21 of the GT, which is his goal in this book.Instead,Felix concentrates on an amalgam of chapters 3 and 10,combined with the implicit and completely uncritical acceptance of the Richard Kahn-Joan Robinson story that Keynes was a poor mathematician by 1927 who had never formally mastered microeconomic theory and who,because of these defects ,was never able to correctly formalize the microeconomic foundations that supported the aggregate demand-aggregate supply analysis of his theory of effective demand in chapter 3 of the GT because he made a number of errors in constructing his aggregate supply curve.Therefore,according to Felix,Keynes failed to show the existence of either involuntary unemployment and/or the existence of an unemployment equilibrium.Therefore,Keynes has misled generations of readers and students of economics and of economic policy.It is a simple matter for any competent mathematician to derive Keynes's major result from the elasticity analysis specified by Keynes in either chapter 20 or in chapter 21.That analysis leads to the following -w/p=mpl/(mpc+mpi),where w/p=the real wage,mpl=the marginal product of labor in the aggregate,and mpc and mpi equal the marginal propensities to spend on consumption goods and investment goods,respectively.If mpc +mpi<1,then you automatically obtain an unemployment equilibrium with some level of involuntary unemployment.Only in the special case of mpc+mpi =1 is the neoclassical case of resource scarcity operational.Felix does do a fair job of covering accurately a number of Keynes's obiter dictum in his book.A reader might benefit from these discussions. ... Read more